Thread by @afcjxmes, Bernd Leno vs Emi Martinez.A statistical analysis: Jump back to around Christmas [...]

Bernd Leno vs Emi Martinez.

A statistical analysis:

Jump back to around Christmas and Arsenal had a goalkeeper in Bernd Leno considered by many as a top 3 GK in the league and arguably our POTS at the time. Martinez, our backup, was seen as a very competent goalkeeper but little more than that.

After Leno’s injury the situation seemed incredibly bleak for the club. One of our most important players injured for what looked like was to be around 6 months, leading to a lot of talk of a goalkeeper being signed on loan in order to fill the void left by Leno.

Despite this, Emiliano Martinez came in and game by game impressed the fans with his excellent performances, both in shot-stopping and impressive all round play. So much so, that it has now become a debate between fans as to who our starting goalkeeper should be next season.

In this thread I will be breaking down the numbers of each goalkeeper in the 2019/20 season, discussing the differences and coming to my own conclusion based off the information gathered.

To make things simpler in the thread I will refer to Leno as

and Martinez as

.

𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗶𝗹𝗲

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁

In all competitions this season

has conceded 41 goals, or a goal every 69.7 minutes,

24 goals and a goal every 85.9 minutes.

Little information can be taken from this however, we have to look at the quality and quantity of shots faced.

When

has been in goal Arsenal have conceded a SoT every 18.6 minutes compared to

22.4. Proportionally whilst

conceded an average of ~20% more G/90 he also faced ~20% more SoT/90 due to Arteta’s improved defence.

faced a greater quantity, but how about quality?

In terms of who faced a better quality of shots in a game;

faced 0.27 xG/SoT and

0.28 xG/SoT, showing very little difference in the average quality of each shot faced, despite improvement in the defence. Arsenal faced more shots under Leno, but not shots of higher quality.

𝗦𝗵𝗼𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴

In all competitions each goalkeepers save % is:

= 77.3%

= 76.1%

Very impressive figures (would place them 2nd and 3rd in the PL). Even more impressive is that

has a PL save % of 81%, however, this is likely to drop due to a small sample.

A better stat to measure a goalkeepers shot stopping ability is post shot expected goals, how many expected goals a GK prevents.

PSxG/90 this season.

= 0.22

= 0.27

Again, both highly impressive and 2nd & 4th when compared to other PL GK’s.

In conclusion, both goalkeepers rank very highly in terms of shot stopping. Since

injury

has been particularly excellent but because of a small sample it’s hard to say whether this will continue. Due to this, in terms of shot stopping

is still superior, at least for now.

In conclusion, both goalkeepers rank very highly in terms of shot stopping. Since injury has been particularly excellent but because of a small sample it’s hard to say whether this will continue. Due to this, in terms of shot stopping is still superior, at least for now.

𝗖𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀 𝗰𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴

Measured as: crosses into the penalty area successfully stopped by the GK.

= 6.6%

= 6.3%

Despite the general thought that

is superior at facing crosses,

has a slightly better % in the PL.

Despite this, when all competitions are used

% rises to 7.7%. This stat contrasting with the eye test may be down to a differing style between GK’s with

opting to punch and

more often claiming. My conclusion is that despite a similar %,

is superior at facing crosses.

Despite this, when all competitions are used % rises to 7.7%. This stat contrasting with the eye test may be down to a differing style between GK’s with opting to punch and more often claiming. My conclusion is that despite a similar %, is superior at facing crosses.

𝗣𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴

When it comes to launched passes (40 yds+)

made 10.5 p90 compared to

7.9, most likely due to the manager they played most under. More notably,

had a 36% completion rate, compared to just 27.6% for

, suggesting the former may be more capable.

also had a slightly higher passes per 90, 27.0 compared to 25.1 but this is likely due to the difference in systems each played in. Overall, statistically

looks the better passer but

is often harshly criticised in this area and has been played more in a far worse system.

also had a slightly higher passes per 90, 27.0 compared to 25.1 but this is likely due to the difference in systems each played in. Overall, statistically looks the better passer but is often harshly criticised in this area and has been played more in a far worse system.

This is better explained here by @DomC0801 and nicely demonstrates how

tends to receive the ball in more advanced areas compared to

. https://twitter.com/domc0801/status/1296390991335882757

https://twitter.com/domc0801/status/1296390991335882757

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗹𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻

To summarise, in terms of shot stopping I believe Leno is still a superior goalkeeper. However, in ball playing ability and aerial battles Martinez edges it for me. Both are excellent goalkeepers and if it’s possible to keep hold of them it’ll be a big win.

In terms of the first game of the season I do think that Martinez should keep his spot and Leno fight for it back, Martinez has given absolutely no reason to be dropped and it should lead to a healthy competition, bringing out the best in both goalkeepers.

End of thread.

Likes and retweets appreciated.

This thread was slightly different to my usual so feedback very welcome, personally felt it was quite waffly and less informative but I’m still learning. Also drop me a follow if you enjoyed.

Looks like Martinez could be on his way out, this one hurts.

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