Okay. Here's what I really think.

As a zero comment though let me say that is that fields differ and units differ.

My observations are personal experiences at top 10 computing units. YMMV. IANAL. Bacon is delicious.

Okay, let's go: https://twitter.com/kareem_carr/status/1304101299546460160
2/n

The secret to understating how to get into a PhD program is understanding how faculty think: we all believe we can tell within 15 seconds whether you're good enough to be one of us. Our evaluations of possible students depends basically on approximating knowing you:
3/n

• "we know you" is the best option, assuming our view is positive (hence why GT undergrads with 2.3s can get into our prestigious program if we've known the student and decide the student is worth our money and time)
4/n

• "we don't know you but you have letters from folks we know and respect" is next, followed by

• "we don't know you and you don't have letters from folks we know, but they come from really good places we trust" (we may ask folks there we know)
5/n

• "we don't know you and you don't have letters from folks we know, but *you* come from really good places we trust" (we may ask folks at those places we know) whether those places are your school or your internships or your job
6/n

• "you have none of that but you have good credentials otherwise" (you ain't getting in with a 2.3 and MAYBE you'll get in with perfect GRE scores and a high GPA from a place we don't trust or know)
7/n

A lot of the things we tell undergrads to do—like get research experience—are really ways up moving up the technology tree, as it were. They make it more likely that you will go to "good" place or get letters from "good" people, etc.
8/8

Again, this is what it looks like to me. YMMV. IANAL.

I do have some real data that supports my opinion, but I've also been yelled at for this opinion in the past, so do with it what you will.

I'm right though... and bacon is delicious.
postscript:

"But why?" you ask?

Simple. The entire system is designed to minimize false positives. Who cares about false negatives when you have 5-50 times more applicants than slots?

…and, yes, it is FAR FAR FAR worse for faculty positions. I've got numbers and everything.
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