As #Brexit trade negs head for rocks, the focus on the 'Internal Market Bill was all on the 'notwithstanding' clauses - but the bill's REAL bombs were also on the devolution settlements - See here @FF explainer with me, @MureDickie @PickardJE 1/ https://www.ft.com/content/a150b01f-dde0-4376-9d6b-bac213a98a84

And if we are heading inexorably for a 'no deal' exit in January, then the political context for UK is even more important ahead of Scottish parliament elections next May /2

To recap, leaving the EU means that the UK 'internal market' is not longer undergirded by EU rules/directives/law.... that power is transferred to Westminster...and that means friction. Just as Brexiters hate Brussels, so Scottish/Welsn nationalists will chafe at W'minster rule/3

The handling of this process has upset not just the SNP (predictable, you might say) but also the pro-Union, Labour-led administration in Cardiff who wrote last month to warn the UK gov approach would "accelerate the break up of the Union". /4 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1296379182000283648?s=20

The bill itself confirmed the Scottish and Welsh worst fears on 'mutual recognition' - they'll have to accept whatever UK Govt accepts in trade deals on food standards. They fear a'race to the bottom' - not surprisingly they don't trust assurances on standards /5

The non-discrimination clauses also cut across areas like Scotland's minimum alcohol pricing rules - an area of interest to US trade negotiators also. More fuel to the Scottish nationalist fires /6

And Sec-46 gives sweeping authority to Westminster to spend money in areas that are devolved to Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland - from infrastructure to cultural and sporting activities that UK ministers judge to “directly or indirectly benefit the United Kingdom”. (!!) /7

As one government aide in the Welsh Assembly said the change means Westminster can not only “apply the UK brand” to projects funded by the scheme, but “bypass the Welsh government altogether” - enjoy that Brexit Festival 2021, like it or not /8

One of the mysteries is that if - as some surmise - Scotland is a big fear for senior Tories, why have they handled the IM Bill so abrasively. We know @michaelgove is worried. He briefed cabinet in July on polling numbers, per @GeorgeWParker and @RishiSunak got the message.../9

And yet the #Brexit 'no deal' juggernaut rolls on - with @BorisJohnson apparently believing that the Scottish issue is no bar to a 'no deal'.

And indeed, it's not as though a deal of the kind they're negotiating would placate Sturgeon/SNP /10

As @rafaelbehr speculated, one scenario is do a 'no deal', assume SNP wins big in May and then simply refuse a Referendum, and use the impotent Scottish nationalist anger to stoke the base of English nationalists and win big in 2024, with Labour killed off in Scotland /11

Nothing that has happened this week dissuades me from the impression that @BorisJohnson govt has set its face to the constitutional, legal and cultural storm, calculating that they will ride it out and emerge stronger. Am struggling to see a way back now. Hope that's wrong. ENDS