1) Traditional recessions typically occur when a deep-rooted issue (or issues) ruptures the capital markets
The market then has to remove that issue before it can advance. May take years
In 2008, it was the RE bubble, then the illiquidity in the banking system
The market then has to remove that issue before it can advance. May take years
In 2008, it was the RE bubble, then the illiquidity in the banking system
2) A stock market correction, is essentially a reduction in the activity of the economy, which causes a temporary pullback, in an otherwise healthy market
March (lock-down) was purposefully and structurally induced
There was no major loose bolt in the engine-room
March (lock-down) was purposefully and structurally induced
There was no major loose bolt in the engine-room
3) A stock market correction, is essentially a reduction in the economic activity, which causes a temporary pullback, in an otherwise healthy market
March (lock-down) was purposefully, structurally induced
March (lock-down) was purposefully, structurally induced
4) Therefore, the only thing that was required to stop the slump, was structural correction, by removing the lock-down.
If the market is going to tank, its going to be for some other reason
I still say, early bull market
If the market is going to tank, its going to be for some other reason
I still say, early bull market
5) Here is a great slice of data from @RyanDetrick
It suggests we still have some more returns coming
Only instance where 12 months sucked was March 2000 (tech bubble pop)
That was a traditional recession
This one, is not
It suggests we still have some more returns coming
Only instance where 12 months sucked was March 2000 (tech bubble pop)
That was a traditional recession
This one, is not
6) That's my two cents
IT
IT