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~NEW REPORT ON DELIVERY AVs~
And we're gonna walk through every detail together.
Good morning, buckle up and get in!
(Jk, there's no passenger seat or seat belt because this vehicle will only carry goods. More on that later.)
And we're gonna walk through every detail together.
Good morning, buckle up and get in!
(Jk, there's no passenger seat or seat belt because this vehicle will only carry goods. More on that later.)
First, a level set:
Research often treats AVs as (a) a monolithic technology or (b) focuses on autonomous ride-hail and/or trucking.
This leaves out the fact that 43% of household trips in personal vehicles are for shopping/errands. We can solve some real problems here, sooner.
Research often treats AVs as (a) a monolithic technology or (b) focuses on autonomous ride-hail and/or trucking.
This leaves out the fact that 43% of household trips in personal vehicles are for shopping/errands. We can solve some real problems here, sooner.
Here's the thing about those grocery/errand trips:
In much of America, you must have or be able to afford a car to do them.
U.S. consumers prefer SUVs or light trucks
Stupefyingly inefficient
Where do I begin on safety/environmental crises?
https://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2020/06/suvs-kill-pedestrians-at-higher-rate-than-cars-study-shows/
In much of America, you must have or be able to afford a car to do them. U.S. consumers prefer SUVs or light trucks Stupefyingly inefficient Where do I begin on safety/environmental crises?https://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2020/06/suvs-kill-pedestrians-at-higher-rate-than-cars-study-shows/
But it's not all negative externalities.
There's also the personal cost: grocery shopping and errands account for a lot of *unpaid personal labor* (More on that below)
Driving a vehicle to/from the shop, dragging kids away from junk food, parking lot fender-benders?
Sign me up
There's also the personal cost: grocery shopping and errands account for a lot of *unpaid personal labor* (More on that below)
Driving a vehicle to/from the shop, dragging kids away from junk food, parking lot fender-benders?
Sign me up
When we think about automation, we're conditioned to think more robots = less jobs.
Local delivery AVs don't take humans out of the loop. They add paid jobs on the other side (pick/pack groceries, maintenance).
This robot takes your unpaid job and pay someone else to do it.
Local delivery AVs don't take humans out of the loop. They add paid jobs on the other side (pick/pack groceries, maintenance).
This robot takes your unpaid job and pay someone else to do it.
This nuance in how delivery AVs differ from other use cases is important. To understand how significant of a chunk of household trips this is, here's a chart.
We transportation nerds spend SO MUCH TIME talking about how people's *commutes* should change, and yet...
We transportation nerds spend SO MUCH TIME talking about how people's *commutes* should change, and yet...
In order to understand the specific impacts that delivery AVs will have on the economy, jobs, and society, @nurobots commissioned @Steer_Group to conduct an independent economic analysis.
We summarized the report here if you prefer prose over poetry/gifs: https://medium.com/nuro/a-more-prosperous-safe-and-sustainable-society-1e8741324452
We summarized the report here if you prefer prose over poetry/gifs: https://medium.com/nuro/a-more-prosperous-safe-and-sustainable-society-1e8741324452
First, Steer found that the delivery AV sector will invest $1.1 trillion in 
from 2025-2035.
This investment will lead to $4.1 trillion in value for the U.S. economy during 2025-35.
For comparison, that's the oil/gas extraction industry's econ activity across the last decade.
from 2025-2035.This investment will lead to $4.1 trillion in value for the U.S. economy during 2025-35.
For comparison, that's the oil/gas extraction industry's econ activity across the last decade.
The Delivery AV sector will create and sustain an average of 3.4 million jobs annually from 2025-2035.
Why?
The AV replaces you driving yourself to the store.
The store hires more workers to pick your groceries and pack in vehicle.
Local talent is hired to operate service.
Why?
The AV replaces you driving yourself to the store.
The store hires more workers to pick your groceries and pack in vehicle.
Local talent is hired to operate service.
The vast majority of jobs that delivery AVs will create aren't "Silicon Valley jobs" - they're new jobs in communities where delivery AVs will serve residents.
It's in economistspeak (and as a political economist I understand ~50% of it) but look at this
https://www.steergroup.com/sites/default/files/2020-09/200910_%20Nuro_Final_Report_Public.pdf
It's in economistspeak (and as a political economist I understand ~50% of it) but look at this
https://www.steergroup.com/sites/default/files/2020-09/200910_%20Nuro_Final_Report_Public.pdf
Please enjoy this video while I take a quick coffee intermission.
@Steer_Group found that delivery AVs will improve traffic safety, helping to avoid 348,000 injuries and 4,800 American deaths in traffic collisions from 2025-2035.
A huge benefit of delivery AVs is completely rethinking vehicle design.
Today's cars are designed to protect the people inside, not people outside.
It's an arms race out there. Everyone wants bigger vehicles to keep THEIR family safer at high speeds, at the expense of others.
Today's cars are designed to protect the people inside, not people outside.
It's an arms race out there. Everyone wants bigger vehicles to keep THEIR family safer at high speeds, at the expense of others.
As @DavidZipper wrote in his recent tour-de-force on, the safety of pedestrians and cyclists has taken a backseat to vehicle occupants.
Just kidding. I lied. We pedestrians and cyclists don't even get the treatment that's afforded to backseat passengers. https://twitter.com/DavidZipper/status/1293533262623776768?s=20
Just kidding. I lied. We pedestrians and cyclists don't even get the treatment that's afforded to backseat passengers. https://twitter.com/DavidZipper/status/1293533262623776768?s=20
AVs that will only carry goods can be designed and programmed to prioritize the safety of people outside the vehicle.
In other words, how about we cut out half of those household trips to the store in oversized tanks with something that's human scale?
In other words, how about we cut out half of those household trips to the store in oversized tanks with something that's human scale?
I'll leave this here. https://wjla.com/features/7-on-your-side/7-on-your-side-children-killed-accidentally-run-over-by-vehicles-with-blind-spots
On another note, transportation is the #1 contributor to emissions.
CAFE standards have made some notable strides in improving fuel economy.
But it's not enough.
My home state is on fire.
Policies are unresponsive and insufficient.
CAFE standards have made some notable strides in improving fuel economy.
But it's not enough.
My home state is on fire.
Policies are unresponsive and insufficient.
I have my job because I'm a policy wonk, not a marketer, so I'll say it: AVs are not a silver bullet.
AVs won't solve climate change alone, nor overcome public health crises like traffic deaths, respiratory illness, or limited food access.
But we need every tool we can get.
AVs won't solve climate change alone, nor overcome public health crises like traffic deaths, respiratory illness, or limited food access.
But we need every tool we can get.
Tune into @EnoTrans's webinar on automated delivery today at 2pm ET.
Eno's @PaulrsLewis will moderate a discussion with @AliaVrls of @Steer_Group and Matthew Lipka of @nurobots. https://www.enotrans.org/event/webinar-how-automated-delivery-could-shape-the-future-of-local-commerce/
Eno's @PaulrsLewis will moderate a discussion with @AliaVrls of @Steer_Group and Matthew Lipka of @nurobots. https://www.enotrans.org/event/webinar-how-automated-delivery-could-shape-the-future-of-local-commerce/
