My take on how China sees the Middle East, and how to understand Beijing's strategy in the region. This is a conference presentation that will morph into a book chapter later this year. 1/ https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/china-and-the-united-states-in-the-middle-east-between-dependency-and-rival

Chinese policies in the Middle East often confound US policymakers and defy simple predictions - for example, even though China's most important relationship in the region is with Iran, it has done little to help Tehran resist US sanctions. 2/

I argue that Beijing sees the Middle East through three lenses - 1) China's direct interests in the region; 2) The so-called "Belt and Road" initiatives; and 3) The US-China relationship. Its strategy and policies reflect all three. 3/

I see China's interests in the region as 1) Energy; 2) Non-Energy trade and investment; 3) Freedom of navigation; 4) Counterterrorism; 5) Securing support for the CCP's domestic and Asian priorities. 4/

I note that while some of these would seem to overlap with US interests, in fact they often diverge despite those seeming commonalities - CT being a prime example, where the Washington and Beijing disagree both on the nature of the problem and the proper response to it. 5/

I note three tensions in how China sees the US in the ME: 1) China seeks to dethrone the US but not supplant it; 2) It seeks to portray itself as a great power, but of a different sort than those that preceded it; and yet 3) It remains dependent on the US for security. 6/

I argue that these three lenses contribute to a Chinese strategy in the ME with several pillars: 1) Lead w/economic benefits; 2) Be everyone's friend, and no one's ally; 3) Quietly seek strategic gains; 4) Incrementally boost Beijing's role and challenge that of the US. 7/

The paper concludes by discussing how great-power rivalry might play out in the Middle East and the policy implications for the United States, with recommendations for the way forward. I look forward to any and all critiques and feedback. /End