An unpopular opinion: I read a lot of Fed/academic economic research. Very rarely does this research aim at overturning paradigms, or unearth durable changes in the economy. It is more like in the vein of ``scientism.'' 1/

By that I mean, it is trying to use mathematical analysis to try and describe real economic phenomena. It can also be biased and the conclusions subtly manipulated to make sure the equations work. 2/

I didn't see a lot of good analysis spotlighting the devastation trade wrought on the U.S. economy or the political shift it would cause. Surely, somebody spotted it, but it certainly wasn't popular in the 1990s early 2000s for example. 3/

None of this to say economic research isn't valid, and indeed after-the fact unearthing of what happened is incredibly valuable and indeed influential for thinking about the future which almost certainly will be different. 4/end.