Thrilled to share our article – huge collaborative effort, suggesting that #BendingTheCurve on #biodiversity loss from land use change by 2050 AND feeding the world might be possible. Read-only free access: https://rdcu.be/b6Zf2 . @IIASAVienna Thread 1/n https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2705-y

For context: among the long list of curves that need to change shape or course, we talk about global biodiversity loss 2/n

Global #biodiversity trends are declining, but “Living in harmony with Nature” – the @CBD vision for 2050 – advocates for upward trends. Halting losses and setting #nature on a recovery course is what #BendingTheCurve is about https://tinyurl.com/y3c3ocrv  3/n

So, is it feasible while feeding the growing population? If yes, how so? Following recent efforts steered by @IPBES, we used models and #scenarios to project these questions 4/n

A baseline scenario – with business-as-usual future trends (population, dietary preferences, technological progress, conservation efforts, etc.) – is contrasted with 6 other scenarios testing various interventions and how they combine 5/n

To evaluate the implications of each scenario, we used 4 land-use models and 8 biodiversity models – using many models allows to better handle uncertainties and look at different biodiversity aspects, from habitats to abundance, intactness and species extinction risks 6/n

Biodiversity trends were projected to continue declining until the end of the 21st century in the baseline, but turning the tide of biodiversity losses from habitat conversion by 2050 might be possible in the best case scenario – this is the first key result, loaded with hope 7/n

So how to get there? The other key result is that bold conservation and restoration efforts are key, but won’t be enough: it could fail to prevent about half of future losses, to secure a bending by 2050, and generate risks to food security 8/n

What do we need? Bold conservation and restoration efforts COMBINED with a transformation of our global food system, from farm to fork. Such an integrated action package harnesses synergies across interventions, could secure a bending by 2050, and bring many more co-benefits 9/n

Of course, it’s easier said than done – and #BendingTheCurve will ALSO need other threats to biodiversity, such as climate change, to be tackled – these notes of caution are also mentioned in this news & views piece https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02502-2 10/n

So what’s the take away? It means that both ambitious conservation & restoration efforts AND food system transformations are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy … 11/n

… this is echoed by the strong call for action emerging from @WWF’s #LivingPlanetReport, also released today and featuring our study and many more exciting scientific stuff
https://livingplanet.panda.org/en-us/  12/n

@WWF was a great catalyzer of this large 3-year scientific project, and it would not have been possible without an amazing team of co-authors!!!! Thank you Michael Obersteiner, @MBarrettwwfuk, @stubutchart, Abhishek Chaudhary, @adpalma, @fadeclerck, @m_dimarco 13/n …

… @jonathandoelman, Martina Dürauer, @robin_freeman, @HarfootMike, @TomokoHasegawa, Stefanie Hellweg, Jelle P. Hilbers, Samantha L. L. Hill, @FHumpenoeder, @Nancy__Jennings, Tamás Krisztin, @GMMace, Haruka Ohashi, Alexander Popp, @AndyPurvisNHM … 14/n

… Aafke M. Schipper, Andrzej Tabeau, Hugo Valin, @HansMeijl, Willem-Jan van Zeist, @pvisconbio, Rob Alkemade, @AlmondRosamunde, Gill Bunting, @NeilBurgess081, @SarahLizCornell, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Simon Ferrier, @fritz_steffen, @sfujimori1122, @MoniqueGrooten … 15/n

… Thomas Harwood, Petr Havlík, Mario Herrero, @AndrewHoskins83, @Martin_Ecology, Tom Kram, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Tetsuya Matsui, @carstmey, @Deon_Nel_, @tnewbold31, @GSchmidtTraub, Elke Stehfest, Bernardo B. N. Strassburg, @DetlefvanVuuren, Chris Ware … 16/n

… @cyclonewatson, @wenchaowu3 and Lucy Young 17/n