My latest on standoff at Ladakh, where I argue that to force a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, India needs a leverage. And China is determined not to give it one. Some key points follow in this thread. 1/10 https://www.firstpost.com/india/ladakh-standoff-space-for-diplomacy-shrinking-fast-as-india-china-remain-on-the-edge-of-military-conflict-8802311.html
To expect both India & China to make political concessions to arrive at a solution is to expect New Delhi to accept the violation of its territorial integrity — a condition that no nation-state may accept. This equivalence, therefore, is false. 2/10 https://www.firstpost.com/india/ladakh-standoff-space-for-diplomacy-shrinking-fast-as-india-china-remain-on-the-edge-of-military-conflict-8802311.html
The success of a political process is predicated on India persuading China to roll back its encroachments and Beijing showing a willingness to do so. At this stage, this looks unlikely. 3/10 https://www.firstpost.com/india/ladakh-standoff-space-for-diplomacy-shrinking-fast-as-india-china-remain-on-the-edge-of-military-conflict-8802311.html
As the stronger power, China sees no merit in pulling back troops, restoring status quo & handing India a “win”. Beijing believes such a compromise will be perceived not as the benevolence of greater power, but a surrender forced by a resolute India. 4/10 https://www.firstpost.com/india/ladakh-standoff-space-for-diplomacy-shrinking-fast-as-india-china-remain-on-the-edge-of-military-conflict-8802311.html
If China sees a strategic threat in India’s infrastructure building, interprets roads and bridges built by India (that New Delhi perceives to be on its side of LAC) as altering status quo, then it becomes easy for China to self-justify its land-grab. 5/10 https://www.firstpost.com/india/ladakh-standoff-space-for-diplomacy-shrinking-fast-as-india-china-remain-on-the-edge-of-military-conflict-8802311.html
China lacks incentives to give up its territorial gains and remains convinced of the righteousness of its actions.
This irredentism stems at least partly from the tone of strident nationalism set by President Xi Jinping 6/10 https://www.firstpost.com/india/ladakh-standoff-space-for-diplomacy-shrinking-fast-as-india-china-remain-on-the-edge-of-military-conflict-8802311.html
This irredentism stems at least partly from the tone of strident nationalism set by President Xi Jinping 6/10 https://www.firstpost.com/india/ladakh-standoff-space-for-diplomacy-shrinking-fast-as-india-china-remain-on-the-edge-of-military-conflict-8802311.html
Within the paradigm set by Xi, space for a Chinese compromise is almost nonexistent. And with Indian troops moving in to secure the heights of Kailash Range, the stage is set for retaliatory kinetic action. 7/10 https://www.firstpost.com/india/ladakh-standoff-space-for-diplomacy-shrinking-fast-as-india-china-remain-on-the-edge-of-military-conflict-8802311.html
China would be desperate to restore the advantage it believes to have squandered in the comparative jockeying for strategic positions in eastern Ladakh.
This presents India with a slim opening but it also heightens the risk of a military conflict. 8/10 https://www.firstpost.com/india/ladakh-standoff-space-for-diplomacy-shrinking-fast-as-india-china-remain-on-the-edge-of-military-conflict-8802311.html
This presents India with a slim opening but it also heightens the risk of a military conflict. 8/10 https://www.firstpost.com/india/ladakh-standoff-space-for-diplomacy-shrinking-fast-as-india-china-remain-on-the-edge-of-military-conflict-8802311.html
Beijing wants to force a change in India’s posture without crossing the threshold of war because a military conflict here will force China to divert its attention from the western Pacific that remains its primary theatre. 9/10 https://www.firstpost.com/india/ladakh-standoff-space-for-diplomacy-shrinking-fast-as-india-china-remain-on-the-edge-of-military-conflict-8802311.html
The danger lies in the fact that as the standoff gets prolonged, the tinderbox at Pangong Tso may get ignited by one stray miscalculation, leading to kinetic action and military conflict that may not remain localised. 10/10 https://www.firstpost.com/india/ladakh-standoff-space-for-diplomacy-shrinking-fast-as-india-china-remain-on-the-edge-of-military-conflict-8802311.html