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This is either weapons grade posturing or the Govt has decided to go for No Deal. My guess is the latter. Let's see.
Thread:
/1 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/10/fears-grow-that-uk-is-preparing-to-quit-brexit-talks
Thread:
/1 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/10/fears-grow-that-uk-is-preparing-to-quit-brexit-talks
I think the Govt long ago decided that they didn't want the only deal on offer - one with level playing field commitments on employment / environmental rights and state aid. They tried and failed to convince the EU to drop the LPF demands. /2
The Govt then had to jump - either to accept the EU demands (as Johnson did last autumn over the sea border) or for No Deal. Looks like they've gone for No Deal. /3
Maybe - maybe - they are foolish enough to think that the EU will drop LPF demands if they make it really, really clear that they'll go for No Deal rather than accept them. If they are this foolish they'll get nowhere. /4
Which will take us to January 1st, the catastrophe of No Deal, and then a few months later negotiations will start all over again. Australia is negotiating an FTA with the EU for good reason after all. /5
The EU will have exactly the same set of requirements then as it does now, only with the added complications that come from 1) economic damage of No Deal on the EU side and 2) UK law breaking over the NI Protocol. /6
If things get really bad re UK's law breaking over the NI protocol we could be looking at alternative arrangements re the Irish border and integrity of the Single Market, which could mean border infrastructure. If we get to that point - and it's a big if - it's game over for /7
any UK-EU FTA (and a US-UK FTA, and most UK-XX FTAs), and we'd be dealing with a badly wounded peace process. /8
All of this would be the UK Government's choice. It would be an epic failure of governance and statecraft. Regardless of Brexit they are responsible for the peace process in NI, its stability, and upholding and implementing the Good Friday Agreement. If they allow border /9
infrastructure to be reimposed - which far fetched though it seems is the logical conclusion of the Internal Market bill - they will have failed the people of Northern Ireland and Ireland, created circumstances in which conflict is a huge risk, and have made the UK a pariah /10
state, if not globally then at least with our two key allies -the EU and US.
Whether all this can stand, and whether Tory MPs would accept it, is another question entirely. /11
Whether all this can stand, and whether Tory MPs would accept it, is another question entirely. /11
As for the politics, a @BestForBritain survey in the summer showed that 90% of Red Wall voters, inc vast majority of Leave voters, want Johnson to get a deal. Most voters (correctly) believe that living costs would rise if there's No Deal. /12 https://www.bestforbritain.org/keep_your_promise_boris_say_red_wall_voters_no_deal_likely_to_plunge_battleground_seats_into_economic_and_political_crises
They are not going to thank the Govt for raising the cost of food and other essentials in the midst of mass unemployment, recession and the pandemic. Given that prices haven't risen in phase 1 of the pandemic the Govt won't be able to hide behind the virus. /13
Will No Deal be the straw that breaks the Tories, the ERM moment for their polling that A levels, pandemic failure etc have not been? Possibly. Many Leave voters have waited for Brexit believing that things will get better - if things demonstrably get worse the /14
lie will have been brutally exposed. As for Labour, No Deal will force them to take a position on an alternative outcome, either Johnson's 'oven ready' deal or a closer relationship. No one expects them call for rejoin yet - but many will expect them to use disaster as an /15
opportunity to point to the benefits of EU engagement (affordable food, fully stocked supermarket shelves, trucks that can cross the Channel instead of sit for days in Kent) and begin the job of rebuilding the case for Britain's future in Europe. /16
Final thought. This may all come to nothing. The Lords may throw out / amend the Internal Market bill. Johnson has form when it comes to last minute pivots. He may plump for a deal to avoid the chaos. But I wouldn't bet on it. /end
