Time for another French Covid update. In the last week, the picture has darkened again. Cases are still growing steadily but acute cases, which fell from May until late August, are growing rapidly. I fear the “second wave” is here.
1/10

Seven days ago, there were 464 C19 patients in intensive care in France. Last night there were 599. Seven days ago, there were 3,464 hospital cases. Now it’s above 5,000 again – ie 5,003 – for the first time since mid-August.
2/10

These numbers are nowhere near the late March/early April peak but the trend is accelerating. France’s chief scientific adviser, Jean-François Delfraissy, says that the government faces “difficult decisions” in the next few days 3/10

Here is my crunch of the last six days figures.
New confirmed cases are running at an average of 7,320, compared to 5,518 the previous week and 4,668 the week before that. The new daily peaks were 8,975 on 4 September and 8,577 yesterday.
4/10

Some of this increase is due to increased testing – a stampede since the government made testing free for all in July. Health lab staff this week complained they couldn’t keep up with the demand. There are long queues in Paris and elsewhere.
5/10

More worrying is the jump in acute cases, which remained low until two weeks ago. Talk of an “epidemic without sick people” is no longer justified, I fear.
6/10

In the last 6 days, there have been 126 Covid-19 deaths. This is an average of 21 a day, compared to 18.5 in the previous 6 days and 13.2 in the week before that. About 30 earlier C19 deaths have been reclassified. The new total is therefore 30,794. 7/10

Covid patients in intensive care have risen in the last week by an average of 21 a day; all hospital cases by 55.3 a day. These averages are more than double the previous week. The Marseilles area – once remarkably Covid free – is in danger of running short of ICU places. 8/10

What will the government do? Delfraissy, head of the committee of scientific advisers, says new nationwide restrictions – or a second lockdown – are NOT on the cards. He is calling for local clampdowns and more protection/isolation for the vulnerable and elderly.
9/10

Some experts still believe that the virus has mutated into something less threatening. Prof Didier Raoult, of hydroxychloroquine fame, says he has identified 7 mutations of the virus. This is, he says, “not bad news” - a sign that the virus is “losing the battle”.
Hmmm.
10/10