In arguably one of the most controversial U Turns since Nick Clegg on Tuition Fees...

I have bought back more than I sold in #AVCT

After a lot of recapping/further analysis I have determined the likelihood of #AVCT's Lateral Flow Test reaching the market is highly likely

Although there still is apparent risk I believe a number of my issues have been squashed

I will now go into my thoughts on this

#AVCT

Firstly, I believe the BAMS assay was not mentioned by Avacta in the most recent
-RNS https://www.investegate.co.uk/avacta-group-plc--avct-/rns/avacta-to-launch-sars-cov-2-elisa-laboratory-test/202009070700081459Y/
-Video https://avacta.com/alastair-smith-gives-more-detail-on-the-sars-cov-2-elisa-laboratory-test/

Due to the fact ELISA and LFT both indicate a positive test via visual colour change, where as BAMS assays...

#AVCT

... uses Molecular Charge to differentiate from a positive to negative.

Meaning different Affimer Molecular make up for each test, similarly how it is wrong to compare Apples with oranges

Secondly, why no analytical data has been shared just yet on LFT?

#AVCT

7th Aug- AVCT announced the independent review of the Avacta LFT
https://www.investegate.co.uk/avacta-group-plc--avct-/rns/sars-cov-2-antigen-test-clinical-collaboration/202008070700064398V/

This includes clinical validation but also the initial evaluation of LFT and ELISA, this leads me to believe analytical studies for LFT should be published in the imminently

#AVCT

Also mentioned, is defining the target performance specifications

This will determine asymptomatic or symptomatic target

Forward looking to the 7th Sept RNS indicates early potential of a very high performing LFT
https://www.investegate.co.uk/avacta-group-plc--avct-/rns/avacta-to-launch-sars-cov-2-elisa-laboratory-test/202009070700081459Y/

#AVCT

After re evaluating and analysing the RNS I now believe with a heck of alot more confidence Avacta's lateral flow test will achieve
Spec- 99%
Sens in Symptomatic Patients- 95%+

Sens in asymptomatic patients- 80%+

#AVCT

This coupled up with the Prime Ministers speech yesterday has made me ENORMOUSLY bullish on Avacta

1min 20sec
-EVERYBODY GETS A TEST
-Pregnancy Style
-15 minute
Infectious NOT Infected https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1303721870521520130?s=20

#AVCT

'Infectious' this sent alarms bells ringing
They are looking to mass test high frequency to pick up the most infectious people

Avacta's technology is perfectly poised to be ideal for what the government need and want
-No False Positives (V High Spec)
-Only pick...

#AVCT

... up the people who are shedding high viral loads in the community... the young... the asymptomatic

(Early indications are Avacta's test may fit this bill perfectly due to the ELISA read out recently announced)

I actually can not believe my thinking on Monday

#AVCT

After working through the data as I have tried to interpret Abbots TCID and I believe it is misleading

In order to get Abbots results in ml you will need to x50 their reading which reads
1.125 10(Power of 3)

#AVCT

Interpreting this data against Avacta's on ELISA is hard as its not a peer to peer comparison therefore it would be inaccurate to even attempt to compare

However, as seen below Affimers have provided peer to peer comparison to another technology from a £2.8bn company

#AVCT

What this shows is that the Affimer tech which is in the embryonic stage of development is far superior to its juggernaut peers

Indicating and validating early on the potential which the Affimers may achieve in both diagnostics and therapeutics in decades to come

#AVCT

Now why do I believe any British Antigen Lateral Flow test which is remotely successful in meeting the parameters set out
Spec- 95%+
Sens- 80%+
Will be adopted by the UK Govt?

The Government aims to be testing 10m a day within 6 months

This is a massive tall order

#AVCT

So far 20 Lateral Flow Antigen Tests have been CE Marked...

How many have been adopted and rolled out by the British Govt?

NONE

I believe this paves the way for British companies to occupy British testing capacity

#AVCT #ODX

#AVCT

Study of Viral Load in #COVID19 infections Sputum (Saliva and Mucus) may be

-higher
-peak later
-persist for longer

Showing a larger window of opportunity for detection

#AVCT

Important to note viral loads peaking later was observed in ViralRNA where as Avacta's test is Viral Antigen

Also, stating higher viral loads was more commonly found in Saliva than in the Nasal Passage

#AVCT

Studies highlighted found little to no difference between viral loads across

pre-symptomatic asymptomatic symptomatic

@BigBiteNow

#AVCT

Infectious?

Studies found 6 days before symptoms onset and 8/9 after the onset of symptoms a patient could be classed as infectious

All while having high/elevated viral loads

#AVCT

Study shows patients had a high viral load before the onset of symptoms

Therefore allowing the virus to be detected if there was a easily accessible test which could be conducted frequently

This would allow them to isolate earlier and prevent transmission

#AVCT

Another study found NO STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE in the viral load of symptomatic vs non symptomatic

Highlighting transmission and infection is linked and bred predominantly asymptomatic

#AVCT

Yet another case study highlighting peak infectiousness is pre/asymptomatic shedding the highest viral load early into the infection with the HIGHEST VIRAL LOAD OBSERVED IN THE THROAT

#AVCT

Video relating to the above case study on viral load/shedding


All this analysis of
-Viral load/Shedding
-Affimer performance
-UK Govt strategy

has allowed me to build a solid conviction that both #AVCT tests will achieve mass sales

#AVCT

Okay so I thought I would add a little more juicy analysis

Trying to quantify Abbots test against AVCT's ELISA read out and it does look promising I must say

#AVCT

Abbots test
LOD= 22.5 TCID50
Spec-98.5%
Sens-97%

SinoBio test
LOD= 23 TCID50
1.4x10 (power of 5)

https://chemrxiv.org/articles/preprint/A_SARS-CoV-2_Coronavirus_Nucleocapsid_Protein_Antigen-Detecting_Lateral_Flow_Assay/12794825/1

#AVCT

Sino Bio have also created an ELISA Antigen Test which yielded very sensitive results only 1.43pg/ml more sensitive than the @Avacta ELISA Results

This is in the minuscule concentrations we are talking
1,000,000,000,000(a trillionth of a gram)
https://www.sinobiologicalcdn.com/reagent/KIT40592.pdf

#AVCT

To further compare similar concentrations was achieved between Sino Bio and Avacta for particles copies/ml

#AVCT

One of the most important aspects which has shone out is the following statement... the final piece to the puzzle IMO

I believe identifying the correct samples to use in clinical validation as I have previously discussed above is CRITICAL

#AVCT

With the correct approach to validation like Abbot cleverly did, I believe

@Avacta's Lateral Flow Test will yield
Specificity- 99%+
Sensitivity- 95%+

Making Avacta's test a top tier asset in the fight against #COVID19