What Is China’s Strategy in the Senkaku Islands? - Very grateful to ⁦ @WarOnTheRocks⁩ for giving me the opportunity to clarify some of the latest changes in Chinese operational behaviour and stress how this dispute is not just a peripheral affair. https://warontherocks.com/2020/09/what-is-chinas-strategy-in-the-senkaku-islands/

Let me briefly highlights some of the key arguments I make in it.
1. This year China has shifted into phase 2 of a 3-step attritional strategy around the Senkakus;
Step 1: challenge Japanese arguments on non existence of a dispute by normalising presence;

Step 2: challenge control by exercising law-enforcement rights;
Step 3: take over control by reversing presence and exercise of law-enforcement rights.
2. I challenge mainstream views suggesting this is a bilateral spat over islands with more symbolic significance than value:

A. This attritional strategy is slowly setting China and Japan on a collision track with possible critical points coming up sooner rather than later - well within this decade;
B. Any conflict is unlikely to keep the US out, and the alliance safe;

C. What happens there matters internationally because of the precedent it sets on management of maritime disputes.
3. Lastly, I argue that Japan’s delaying counter strategy may no longe suffice and that this will remain a serious challenge for the next Japanese PM.
Enjoy!