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Statistics, lies, and the virus: five lessons the pandemic has taught us about data and how we use it.
My #LongRead for the @FTMag https://www.ft.com/content/92f64ea9-3378-4ffe-9fff-318ed8e3245e
My #LongRead for the @FTMag https://www.ft.com/content/92f64ea9-3378-4ffe-9fff-318ed8e3245e
Lesson One: the numbers matter.
We've become used to numbers being spun, distorted, used for slippery targets, lied about - and we easily become cynical. But statistics aren't just a vector for bullshit: they're the only hope we have of understanding the pandemic.
We've become used to numbers being spun, distorted, used for slippery targets, lied about - and we easily become cynical. But statistics aren't just a vector for bullshit: they're the only hope we have of understanding the pandemic.
Lesson Two: don't take the numbers for granted.
Even nerds like me can easily lapse into thinking that statistics just come from some big database somewhere. But first they have to be gathered, measured, collated etc. This 'statistical bedrock' is essential, and under-rated.
Even nerds like me can easily lapse into thinking that statistics just come from some big database somewhere. But first they have to be gathered, measured, collated etc. This 'statistical bedrock' is essential, and under-rated.
Lesson Three: even the experts see what they expect to see.
(I discuss the "gourmet cheese vs stinky armpits" phenomenon... and also interview @Kit_Yates_Maths about model callibration and the timing of lockdown.)
(I discuss the "gourmet cheese vs stinky armpits" phenomenon... and also interview @Kit_Yates_Maths about model callibration and the timing of lockdown.)
Lesson Four: the best insights come from combining personal experience with statistics.
People who have most impressed me - such as the late great @HansRosling and Dr Nathalie MacDermott (both of whom have front-line experience of Ebola) manage to do this...
People who have most impressed me - such as the late great @HansRosling and Dr Nathalie MacDermott (both of whom have front-line experience of Ebola) manage to do this...
...I call it "statistics, fast and slow" with apologies to Danny Kahneman: combining the rich, vivid detail of personal experience with the thinner but broader and more representative insights of the spreadsheet. Ideally, we need both.
Lesson Five: Everything can be polarised.
For all the sorrows of this pandemic it has been comforting to cover an issue where people actually want to learn the truth rather than (as with eg Brexit) to win a fight. But even life or death gets polarised in time...
For all the sorrows of this pandemic it has been comforting to cover an issue where people actually want to learn the truth rather than (as with eg Brexit) to win a fight. But even life or death gets polarised in time...
...so a reminder to all of us to be curious and open minded. Ask questions, try to understand the world rather than trying to signal membership of a political tribe.
That's very hard, but such is life.
That's very hard, but such is life.
(Thanks to my editors @AliceFishburn @neilos49 , to @d_spiegel @Kit_Yates_Maths and Nathalie MacDemott, to my @BBCMoreOrLess colleagues @richardvadon and @katelamble for their work on the timing-of-lockdown question.)
Oh, and if you're interested in this sort of thing I have written an entire book, "How To Make The World Add Up". Please go and tell your local @Waterstones to order some copies because they haven't quite understood why a book about numbers might appeal - and....
...you can pre-order copies, including SIGNED copies, here: https://timharford.com/books/worldaddup/
Those splendid people at The @guardian have published an extract of my book this morning. Enjoy! https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/sep/10/facts-v-feelings-how-to-stop-emotions-misleading-us
