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Justin Jefferson: To bulletproof or not to bulletproof?
Let's dive in.
Let's dive in.
Justin Jefferson is 6-1 and 202 pounds.
Unfortunately he didnt participate in the agility drills which means that Jefferson does not have an "athleticism" score per @rotounderworld .
Unfortunately he didnt participate in the agility drills which means that Jefferson does not have an "athleticism" score per @rotounderworld .
His comp list looks pretty close to a Nelson Agholor from a size/draft capital/athleticism perspective if I had to guess at his agility though.
Reggie Wayne and Jeremy Maclin give him some nice successful comps.
Reggie Wayne and Jeremy Maclin give him some nice successful comps.
From a ceiling perspective there was this crazy good article on @DLFootball talking about how BMI and WR1 ceiling are intertwined by @FF_TomB
Which, by the way, each day that you arent following Tom is a day that you arent winning your dynasty league. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1303196836799197187?s=20
Which, by the way, each day that you arent following Tom is a day that you arent winning your dynasty league. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1303196836799197187?s=20
The threshold laid out was a BMI of 26.0.
Jefferson clears that hurdle with a 26.6.
Box Checked.
Jefferson clears that hurdle with a 26.6.
Box Checked.
Another positive data point is simply being an underclassman.
Players that declare early for the NFL draft have MUCH higher hit rates than those that dont.
@AmItheRealBlair knocks it out of the park in this article.
https://www.rotoviz.com/2019/01/one-weird-trick-for-finding-top-wr-prospects-early-declaration-and-draft-age-the-wrong-read-no-53/
Players that declare early for the NFL draft have MUCH higher hit rates than those that dont.
@AmItheRealBlair knocks it out of the park in this article.
https://www.rotoviz.com/2019/01/one-weird-trick-for-finding-top-wr-prospects-early-declaration-and-draft-age-the-wrong-read-no-53/
FWIW all of your leaguemates are reading every single "the wrong read" article that Blair puts out on @RotoViz
If you aren't, there is a good chance you are playing fantasy football on hard mode.
If you aren't, there is a good chance you are playing fantasy football on hard mode.
If you have been following me for any length of time you will know that @pahowdy is a major influencer in how I play dynasty.
This is another of his greatest creations.
It shows that he has a 64.7% chance at being a hit based SOLELY on his breakout age.
This is another of his greatest creations.
It shows that he has a 64.7% chance at being a hit based SOLELY on his breakout age.
Jefferson's 19.6 (74th-percentile) breakout age coupled with his first round draft pedigree combine for a 64.7% hit rate.
College production is the biggest driver in my process. I look at two similar metrics and then try to provide some context around those metrics.
First up is market share of receiving yards.
First up is market share of receiving yards.
This thread provides a quick look at how the top WRs in fantasy football performed when they were in college. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1227547156485033984?s=20
And this is Justin Jefferson looking like a stud.
It is pretty normal for successful players to be complete non-factors at age 18, but they usually erupt at 19, just like Jefferson did.
It is pretty normal for successful players to be complete non-factors at age 18, but they usually erupt at 19, just like Jefferson did.
One of the new metrics I am incorporating is yards per team pass attempt (Y/TPA).
I didnt think it was necessary at first, but when I incorporated it, it improved the overall correlation and hit rate.
And who am I to argue with results?
I didnt think it was necessary at first, but when I incorporated it, it improved the overall correlation and hit rate.
And who am I to argue with results?
I havent settled on the Y/TPA thresholds yet, but as of right now these are the ones that I am using and Jefferson smashed them.
The next thing I like to look at are the players teammates. It is understandably easier to dominate when you play with a bunch of duds.
Jefferson played with some future NFL'ers and held his own however.
All stats are per @pfref
Jefferson played with some future NFL'ers and held his own however.
All stats are per @pfref
At age 19 Jefferson made future probably top 5 NFL pick and potential transcendent tier WR, Ja'Marr Chase a non-factor.
(PS. Chase has the rare ability to qualify for the exclusive transcendent tier if the draft process unfolds just right for him).
(PS. Chase has the rare ability to qualify for the exclusive transcendent tier if the draft process unfolds just right for him).
Here is a complete list of players since Y2K that qualified for the transcendent tier.
Andre Johnson
Calvin Johnson
Julio Jones
FWIW I dont think he reaches that level in my model, but you never know.
Andre Johnson
Calvin Johnson
Julio Jones
FWIW I dont think he reaches that level in my model, but you never know.
Back to Jefferson, at age 20 Chase took over as the alpha but this was a two dog race and Jefferson held his own quite nicely.
Once you consider all elements of his profile Justin Jefferson looks to be a future star at the NFL level.
Justin Jefferson is #bpp certified.
Grade: Bulletproof.
Justin Jefferson is #bpp certified.
Grade: Bulletproof.
These grades are completely devoid of landing spot.
Once I factor in landing spot Justin Jefferson appears to have future alpha upside on a depth chart lacking talent after 30 year old Adam Thielen.
This puts JJ neck and neck with CeeDee Lamb for me at WR3/4 in this class.
Once I factor in landing spot Justin Jefferson appears to have future alpha upside on a depth chart lacking talent after 30 year old Adam Thielen.
This puts JJ neck and neck with CeeDee Lamb for me at WR3/4 in this class.
This type of thing weighs heavily into my rankings on patreon.
If you are into this type of analysis please join us! The first tier is only $3!
#cheaplikeborscht https://www.patreon.com/DFBeanCounter
If you are into this type of analysis please join us! The first tier is only $3!
#cheaplikeborscht https://www.patreon.com/DFBeanCounter
The $3 tier gives you the dynasty rankings and the community discord where you can bounce ideas off other smart people
Here is a sample of the tier 2 WR's from the August rankings for an example of what they include
The BPP ratings are predraft grades, they do not change ever
Here is a sample of the tier 2 WR's from the August rankings for an example of what they include
The BPP ratings are predraft grades, they do not change ever
The $6 tier also includes a special channel in the discord where I spill my thoughts on things that dont make it to the public.
I also report back on new research as its happening and previews of where players are trending in the next months rankings.
(cont.)
I also report back on new research as its happening and previews of where players are trending in the next months rankings.
(cont.)
There isnt enough time in the day for me to answer trade/draft questions etc. but in this tier I answer high level questions and rankings context questions.
Some examples would be things like, "what is the hit rate on players like Hollywood Brown?" or "why are Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk side by side in the dynasty rankings?" etc.
This tier also includes my off the cuff articles where someone asks a question about something that requires an in-depth answer.
"why dont you have Jonathan Taylor ranked as the best RB in this class like all the other data analysts do?"
"why dont you have Jonathan Taylor ranked as the best RB in this class like all the other data analysts do?"
Here is a sample for that one. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Nz6UXtFNdGpwQJ9moRycwsVhQ8y-vUqBo90Ol-YWHpY/edit?usp=sharing
The $9 tier includes the new devy and cornerstone rankings.
And then the $29 tier is like the concierge service for those patrons that want the super premium experience.
I answer ALL of their questions in tremendous detail whether it is a trade question or draft or whatever.
And then the $29 tier is like the concierge service for those patrons that want the super premium experience.
I answer ALL of their questions in tremendous detail whether it is a trade question or draft or whatever.
I also do audits for their teams twice per year and there are a few other perks as well.
Anyway, please consider subscribing if you like the content!
#goforthandwinagreatmanychampionshipsin2020!
Anyway, please consider subscribing if you like the content!
#goforthandwinagreatmanychampionshipsin2020!
