Read on Twitter
Analysis of Trump 2020 (Thread)
Something is not right here.
@vtchakarova said years ago that Trump wasn’t going to be on the ballot in 2020. All sorts of things changed over time. Periodically, I’d circle back to her and ask if her view had changed. She refused to budge.
Something is not right here.
@vtchakarova said years ago that Trump wasn’t going to be on the ballot in 2020. All sorts of things changed over time. Periodically, I’d circle back to her and ask if her view had changed. She refused to budge.
That’s where the problem started. Velina is a very smart lady and global strategy is her gig. If this was her call, she was seeing something I wasn’t.
Let’s review the facts:
1) If Trump loses, he will be indicted for various state and federal crimes and likely go to prison
Let’s review the facts:
1) If Trump loses, he will be indicted for various state and federal crimes and likely go to prison
2) the statute of limitations on his crimes is 5 years.
3) he can’t be charged as long as he is president
4) no matter who wins, it’s going to be close.
5) Trump is NOT going to leave it to the voters to decide if he should go to prison.
So, what’s the solution?
3) he can’t be charged as long as he is president
4) no matter who wins, it’s going to be close.
5) Trump is NOT going to leave it to the voters to decide if he should go to prison.
So, what’s the solution?
Here are some possibilities:
1) delay the elections so that the clock runs out on his crimes
2) make the elections such a mess that the winner isn’t known for at least a year. (same effect as 1)
3) resign on Jan 19th and have President Pence pardon him.
1) delay the elections so that the clock runs out on his crimes
2) make the elections such a mess that the winner isn’t known for at least a year. (same effect as 1)
3) resign on Jan 19th and have President Pence pardon him.
3 is most likely, but that won’t solve the problem of charges levied by N.Y. and other states.
His 16 taped interviews with Bob Woodward released today really got me thinking. What’s he doing? This is suicide. Why did he do it? Then I remembered Velina’s call.
His 16 taped interviews with Bob Woodward released today really got me thinking. What’s he doing? This is suicide. Why did he do it? Then I remembered Velina’s call.
In my working life, I traded gamma for a top tier bank rates desk. Given our perma long Berm position, I was forced to be perma short gamma to offset the vicious negative carry of the desk. As Mike Tyson said, “Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the mouth”.
Being short gamma most of the time meant getting my face punched frequently, Either you quit, or you find a way of coping with reality (translation: learning when to duck). For me, the key was coming up with a theory to explain the facts, not what should be, but what was.
As new facts came in, I kept updating my theory. I would test my theories on my boss. One day, fed up with my latest revision, he said,
“Hey Anil, I’m glad you’ve come up the latest theory to explain everything. But, I don’t care. The Bank pays you a lot of money to come up
“Hey Anil, I’m glad you’ve come up the latest theory to explain everything. But, I don’t care. The Bank pays you a lot of money to come up
..with this shit, and a lot of your biggest clients would love to hear them. Call them.”
I did and it was amazing what I learned. Many corrected me saying, “this part is wrong”, to which I always said, “How do you know?”. When they responded, “Because I did it” I knew I’d hit
I did and it was amazing what I learned. Many corrected me saying, “this part is wrong”, to which I always said, “How do you know?”. When they responded, “Because I did it” I knew I’d hit
jackpot. To all my ex-clients, that was the birth of “The Inside Scoop”. I didn’t know more, and God knows, I wasn’t any smarter, but I sat at the center of the web and with all the corrections I got, I was able to quickly provide a picture Michael Lewis would be jealous of.
Now, let’s look at Trump and the elections. We know:
1) he can’t go into the elections with these odds:
A) win, you’re POTUS, or
B) lose, you’re in jail for life.
2) a pardon from President Pence would only make the States more keen on pressing their charges.
So, what to do?
1) he can’t go into the elections with these odds:
A) win, you’re POTUS, or
B) lose, you’re in jail for life.
2) a pardon from President Pence would only make the States more keen on pressing their charges.
So, what to do?
How’s this for a plan?
1) throw the elections, in effect, if not on paper
2) fan the flames of the elections being rigged. Blame it on Russia, the Post Office, Covid, the media, whatever.
3) stir up the divisions in society, whether its BLM vs the cops,
1) throw the elections, in effect, if not on paper
2) fan the flames of the elections being rigged. Blame it on Russia, the Post Office, Covid, the media, whatever.
3) stir up the divisions in society, whether its BLM vs the cops,
the fascist right vs militant Antifa, or whatever.
Re 1: Trump has done everything he possibly could to lose.
If he loses, he offers Biden a deal:
I get immunity from prosecution for all previous events by all states and federal agencies.
Re 1: Trump has done everything he possibly could to lose.
If he loses, he offers Biden a deal:
I get immunity from prosecution for all previous events by all states and federal agencies.
If Biden says no, Trump contests the election results and stirs up his base with talk the elections being stolen from them, just like he promised. America would descend into armed battle, otherwise known as a civil war, in the midst of a pandemic.
The result would be deaths in the millions.
Biden, having dealt with a lifetime of personal suffering, will bow to Trump. One mafia Don and his criminal family escaping justice vs millions of innocent people dying? There is no debate. As for the states, they’re bankrupt.
Biden, having dealt with a lifetime of personal suffering, will bow to Trump. One mafia Don and his criminal family escaping justice vs millions of innocent people dying? There is no debate. As for the states, they’re bankrupt.
Their balance sheet is the leverage the Feds have over them. Let Trump and his criminal family walk or you really will be bankrupt. Puerto Rico will look rich compared to you. Is Donald’s hide really worth that?
So, Velina was right. Learn who to trust, and then listen.
You can be my billion dollar deal making clients and tell me where I’m wrong. I won’t be offended. As my boss once told the head of risk management, “You want to scare the shit out of Anil? Just agree with him”
You can be my billion dollar deal making clients and tell me where I’m wrong. I won’t be offended. As my boss once told the head of risk management, “You want to scare the shit out of Anil? Just agree with him”
