Read on Twitter
Many people asking if #COVID19 #RuleOf6 restrictions contradict findings & conclusions of our Review of Outdoor Transmission of COVID19 for outdoor events & activities (video below)
NO, on the contrary, new #RuleOf6 is partly explained & underpinned by our findings
THREAD 1/9 https://twitter.com/ProfMikeWeed/status/1302281266432225282
NO, on the contrary, new #RuleOf6 is partly explained & underpinned by our findings
THREAD 1/9 https://twitter.com/ProfMikeWeed/status/1302281266432225282
Key review insights that explain #RuleOf6:
1) Transmission risk very low outdoors UNLESS natural social distancing breeched – then caution & mitigation needed
2) Largest risk = spontaneous, informal, unregulated gatherings
3) Underlying risk = rate of infection in community
2/9
1) Transmission risk very low outdoors UNLESS natural social distancing breeched – then caution & mitigation needed
2) Largest risk = spontaneous, informal, unregulated gatherings
3) Underlying risk = rate of infection in community
2/9
Circumstances that breech natural distancing outdoors R key:
EG: 5 families meeting for picnic in park will have #PerfectCirculation (all will have close contact with everyone) all will touch same surfaces, over duration of several hrs, & no assessment or mitigation of risk
3/9
EG: 5 families meeting for picnic in park will have #PerfectCirculation (all will have close contact with everyone) all will touch same surfaces, over duration of several hrs, & no assessment or mitigation of risk
3/9
#RuleOf6 intended to prevent multiple hundreds of thousands of informal, unregulated, unmitigated gatherings that R likely every weekend, if not every day
VOLUME of such gatherings exacerbates further the already high risk of unregulated gatherings identified by our review
4/9
VOLUME of such gatherings exacerbates further the already high risk of unregulated gatherings identified by our review
4/9
Govt giving restrictions #ForceOfLaw in attempt to regulate risk of unregulated & unmitigated gatherings
This may work to control size, but not circulation, density, duration, & risk of surface transmission. Nor does it regulate volume of gatherings
Hence need for #RuleOf6
5/9
This may work to control size, but not circulation, density, duration, & risk of surface transmission. Nor does it regulate volume of gatherings
Hence need for #RuleOf6
5/9
Risk of significant volume of informal, unmitigated, unregulated gatherings significantly exceeds risk of comparatively limited number of risk assessed, formally mitigated, organised outdoor events that consider risk factors, & underlying risk of community rate of infection
6/9
6/9
Risk of organised, risk assessed, regulated outdoor events is escalation from sporadic transmission to cluster outbreaks
Risk of informal, unmitigated, unregulated gatherings at volume is direct escalation from sporadic to widespread community transmission
Hence #RuleOf6
7/9
Risk of informal, unmitigated, unregulated gatherings at volume is direct escalation from sporadic to widespread community transmission
Hence #RuleOf6
7/9
Consequently, new regulations include cautious exemptions from #RuleOf6 for many organised, risk assessed, regulated settings, including some outdoor events
Albeit that some plans are suspended pending a review
8/9
Albeit that some plans are suspended pending a review
8/9
Our review suggests that the govt’s review should:
- not automatically presume against organised outdoor activities & events
- consider detail of risk & mitigation for each event, in whole & in part
- monitor if feared increase in community infection rate actually occurs
9/9
- not automatically presume against organised outdoor activities & events
- consider detail of risk & mitigation for each event, in whole & in part
- monitor if feared increase in community infection rate actually occurs
9/9
