THREAD: Trump is going to win Michigan.

Here’s why: in 2016 & 2018, the RCP Dem average was always spot on the money- but *every undecided vote* went Republican both cycles

So, if the Dem came into Election Day leading 48-43 in MI on the RCP avg, they would lose 48-52.

Look

Here we go:

2016- Clinton came into election night averaging 47, Trump with 43....and Clinton gets only that *47* and Trump takes every undecided and wins 47.3-47.0

2018- Stabenow came in at 52 on average, James with 43. Stabenow stays right at 52 and James gets all undecideds

Now for 2020, we want to look at what Biden is averaging in MI. Because as we’ve seen, the Dems get *exactly* the number on RCP average.

Biden is only at 47.0 (!)

That’s LESS than Clinton and without the 3rd parties that were in 2016

If it’s like the last 2 cycles, Trump wins

47 is a very weak number for Biden here, and with Trump in 2016 and even James in 2018 blue wave getting every undecided- Trump looks to win Michigan.

They will start to break his way mid-October or so, as it was in 2016 & 2018.

Like clockwork they will break GOP

CONCLUSION: If Biden isn’t averaging over 49 in Michigan by Election Day on RCP- he’s toast.

Have a nice day.