Thread by @celinegounder, 1/ VERY back of the envelope. 80-90% of deaths from coronavirus in [...]

Céline Gounder, MD, ScM, FIDSA

celinegounder

1/ VERY back of the envelope. 80-90% of deaths from coronavirus in the United States were preventable.

2/ For comparison, estimated # of deaths from COVID per 100K by country to date (source: @IHME_UW https://covid19.healthdata.org/global ):
USA 58.05
Canada 25.12
Germany 10.94
Australia 3.13
South Korea 0.6
Singapore 0.47

3/ Canada, Germany, and Australia have older populations than ours, so all else being equal, you'd expect them to have higher death rates.

4/ ~80-90% preventable COVID deaths is consistent with estimates earlier this summer: https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/19/faster-response-prevented-most-us-covid-19-deaths/

A faster response could have prevented most U.S. Covid-19 deaths - STAT

If the U.S. had moved as quickly as other countries at the start of the pandemic, between 70% and 99% of Covid-19 deaths might have been prevented.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/19/faster-response-prevented-most-us-covid-19-deaths/

5/ This is on the same order of magnitude, if not worse, as former South African President Thabo Mbeki's denial that HIV causes AIDS. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/nov/26/aids-south-africa

Mbeki Aids denial 'caused 300,000 deaths'

Aids policies of former South African president Thabo Mbeki directly responsible for deaths of more than a third of a million people – Harvard university

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/nov/26/aids-south-africa

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