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this study posits that cov-19 can survive in contagious form for up to 8 days on salmon when kept at temperatures used for cold chain shipment and storage.
this is preliminary and needs verification, but if it's true is would be a big piece in the puzzle https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.17.255166v1.full
this is preliminary and needs verification, but if it's true is would be a big piece in the puzzle https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.17.255166v1.full
one of the weird issues with COV-19 is that it seems to "superspread" based on location, not individual.
it acts like a disease with a strong source contamination spread vector.
this could explain why.
you get events like this: https://nypost.com/2020/09/05/three-dead-147-infected-after-covid-super-spreader-wedding/
it acts like a disease with a strong source contamination spread vector.
this could explain why.
you get events like this: https://nypost.com/2020/09/05/three-dead-147-infected-after-covid-super-spreader-wedding/
but the odd things is it's always one, location based event. lots of people in one place get covid.
but you never seem to see one super spreader individual affect multiple places.
this has long made me skeptical of the "superspreader" thesis.
it seems far too localized.
but you never seem to see one super spreader individual affect multiple places.
this has long made me skeptical of the "superspreader" thesis.
it seems far too localized.
consider wuhan itself. they got lots of cases and hospitalizations and deaths.
but something like 40% of people there traveled for chinese new year right during peak spread.
but the disease did not spread much to the rest of china.
but something like 40% of people there traveled for chinese new year right during peak spread.
but the disease did not spread much to the rest of china.
now, this is not entirely surprising as the whole pac rim and set of china adjacent countries have had very low deaths.
this is probably from high pre-existing cross resistance from exposure to sars-like viruses.
but it does not explain wuhan's high rate.
this is probably from high pre-existing cross resistance from exposure to sars-like viruses.
but it does not explain wuhan's high rate.
but if a strong source infection overwhelmed natural cross resistance, it makes sense
it's just a theory, but it's the best one i have
maybe it really was a fish market
this also explains the high contagion events in US meat packing facilities
same temps. similar substrates.
it's just a theory, but it's the best one i have
maybe it really was a fish market
this also explains the high contagion events in US meat packing facilities
same temps. similar substrates.
what if we're passing this out and shipping it around in food?
it seems like source infection from food or sanitation has been ignored/poo-pooed here (sorry, that was a crappy pun)
but was that a good idea?
did we miss something big? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/china-points-to-shrimp-as-covid-19-carrier-after-salmon-debacle?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter
it seems like source infection from food or sanitation has been ignored/poo-pooed here (sorry, that was a crappy pun)
but was that a good idea?
did we miss something big? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/china-points-to-shrimp-as-covid-19-carrier-after-salmon-debacle?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter
obviously, this is not the only infection vector.
the disease does spread person to person.
(though recall that based on wuhan, the WHO was convinced it didn't, perhaps because that was mostly source driven in a population too resistant for much P2P transmission).
the disease does spread person to person.
(though recall that based on wuhan, the WHO was convinced it didn't, perhaps because that was mostly source driven in a population too resistant for much P2P transmission).
but presuming this salomon-illness (sorry) is validated and cov spreads on fish and meat, and (given how much virus has been found in sewage) through the always charming fecal-oral route, have we been looking at this incorrectly?
did we miss a big part of the threat?
did we miss a big part of the threat?
case severity seems to linked to size of infectious dose.
source exposure is generally a much bigger dose.
that 65 person wedding in maine led to 3 deaths. 500k people at sturgis for a week led to 1.
that's a > 7000X per capita variation.
something was up at that wedding.
source exposure is generally a much bigger dose.
that 65 person wedding in maine led to 3 deaths. 500k people at sturgis for a week led to 1.
that's a > 7000X per capita variation.
something was up at that wedding.
so, my theory remains that this disease has a strong source infection vector for spread and we've been guarding the walls of the city while the plague rats came in through the sewers and food carts.
i suspect that and nosocomial spread will the vast bulk of severe cases.
i suspect that and nosocomial spread will the vast bulk of severe cases.
but, i freely admit, this is just a theory at this point.
i may be wrong.
but it's the best fit to the data i can find.
what have i missed? poke some holes in this. show me other evidence.
i need to sharpen this view and add more data.
i may be wrong.
but it's the best fit to the data i can find.
what have i missed? poke some holes in this. show me other evidence.
i need to sharpen this view and add more data.
