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So is 100% zero carbon electricity by 2035 doable?
If we squint, we can see some possible paths, and what's most exciting - we might just be able to do it without raising electricity rates from today's.
Yeah, you read that right. I was surprised too.
THREAD ALERT!
(1/10)
If we squint, we can see some possible paths, and what's most exciting - we might just be able to do it without raising electricity rates from today's.
Yeah, you read that right. I was surprised too.
THREAD ALERT!
(1/10)
My friends @phadkeamol @oboylemm @Nikit_Abhyankar @EricGimon and I did some back of the envelope calculations to explore affordable paths to 100%:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-climate-power/hydrogen-carbon-capture-key-to-net-zero-u-s-electricity-study-idUSKBN2602M0 - a great piece by @ValerieVolco
Blog: https://energyinnovation.org/2020/09/09/a-100-percent-clean-electricity-future-is-affordable-and-delivers-enormous-environmental-health-and-employment-benefits/
Research: https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Pathways-to-100-Zero-Carbon-Power-by-2035-Without-Increasing-Customer-Costs.pdf
(2/10)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-climate-power/hydrogen-carbon-capture-key-to-net-zero-u-s-electricity-study-idUSKBN2602M0 - a great piece by @ValerieVolco
Blog: https://energyinnovation.org/2020/09/09/a-100-percent-clean-electricity-future-is-affordable-and-delivers-enormous-environmental-health-and-employment-benefits/
Research: https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Pathways-to-100-Zero-Carbon-Power-by-2035-Without-Increasing-Customer-Costs.pdf
(2/10)
First: We prefer to focus on getting to 90% zero carbon electricity; our recent detailed grid analysis shows we can do it, dependably meeting demand in every hour, reducing rates by ~10% from today's, & supporting a half million more jobs each year. (3/10) https://www.2035report.com/
W/ political calls for 100% by 2035 & given how affordable the first 90% has become, we wanted to explore possible paths. But remember: cheap options exist to avoid equivalent GHGs in other sectors, so all these debates about the realism of the last 10% are a bit overhyped (4/10)
Still, I'm tired of hearing ppl say costs will skyrocket & the grid will break past X% zero carbon electricity. 10 years ago X was maybe 30, five years ago it was 70, today it's 90. But this hockey stick in costs has never materialized. Technology continually surprises us. (5/10)
So we looked at 5 promising paths for the last 10%. Unlike the tech we analyzed for the first 90%, none of these are commercially deployed at scale. But we took best available tech performance and cost estimates from literature and private industry. (6/10)
We need "firm" techs in the parlance of @JesseJenkins. 3 paths use green hydrogen: in fuel cells, in retrofit gas turbines, & in synthetic methane in existing gas turbines. 2 paths use carbon capture & sequestration: retrofit gas turbines & direct air capture as an offset. (7/10)
Here's the money shot.
Because we can get to 90% zero carbon lowering wholesale electricity rates from today's, those savings could be used to get us to 100% zero carbon electricity WITHOUT RAISING RATES from today. (8/10)
Because we can get to 90% zero carbon lowering wholesale electricity rates from today's, those savings could be used to get us to 100% zero carbon electricity WITHOUT RAISING RATES from today. (8/10)
Getting on the path to either 90% or 100% by 2035 would require ramping up annual deployments of zero carbon power plants, like cheap solar and wind, by 2-3x starting next year. But not 10x...this is doable. Meanwhile, we should invest in R&D for promising last 10% techs. (9/10)
And if we manage to do this, other benefits include: 16K avoided deaths in 2035, 425K avoided asthma attacks, 19K avoided nonfatal heart attacks, monetized climate and health benefits of $1.2T by 2035.
So...let's get started!
(10/10)
So...let's get started!
(10/10)
