Read on Twitter
Yeah, you're paying attention to peak oil demand but its probably a much bigger deal than you think!
THREAD https://twitter.com/CascadeInst/status/1303347629963857920
THREAD https://twitter.com/CascadeInst/status/1303347629963857920
We made 3 main points in this article:
Peak oil demand is a tipping point that can unravel the power of the industry and petro states
Political pressure on oil supplies has been v. successful but pressure on demand has been lacking
Disorderly non-linear decline is likely
Peak oil demand is a tipping point that can unravel the power of the industry and petro statesPolitical pressure on oil supplies has been v. successful but pressure on demand has been lacking Disorderly non-linear decline is likely
What tips here? Its death spiral between political + financial weakening after the peak.
@CarbonBubble has outlined key financial dominos after a peak, but there is also political weakening like that documented by @DownieChristian 4 the coal industry https://carbontracker.org/reports/decline-and-fall/
@CarbonBubble has outlined key financial dominos after a peak, but there is also political weakening like that documented by @DownieChristian 4 the coal industry https://carbontracker.org/reports/decline-and-fall/
The movement to keep fossil fuels in the ground has been hugely successful! As I summarized w @AngelaVCarter and @truzaar.
But... https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-020-02695-5
But... https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-020-02695-5
...just like FF policy should combined supply and demand-side measures ( @fergusgreen @RDNS_TAI), political opposition needs to address demand too and not just leave that to the technocrats because the industry will draw power from rebounding demand. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-018-2162-x
As a political arena, oil demand isn't so different from oil supplies so what's made the movement to #keepitintheground successful can be applied here.
Cars and their pollution disproportionately harm marginalized communities for example. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08941920.2020.1772924?journalCode=usnr20
Cars and their pollution disproportionately harm marginalized communities for example. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08941920.2020.1772924?journalCode=usnr20
Finally, linear rational visions need 2 be put in context.
Managed decline of oil is ideal but kinda not happening and its time to focus on the potential fall out.
Also forecasts like @BloombergNEF EVs for 2035 are good BAU scenario - but business as usual seems v unlikely.
Managed decline of oil is ideal but kinda not happening and its time to focus on the potential fall out.
Also forecasts like @BloombergNEF EVs for 2035 are good BAU scenario - but business as usual seems v unlikely.
