When you misdiagnose the problem, you're also going to err on the remedy.

Thread: https://twitter.com/SecPompeo/status/1303367064892116998

2/ 2.5 years into "max pressure" policy, Iran's nuclear program is less, not more restricted. But also true that JCPOA, while bruised and bloodied, is not yet dead.

3/ Rewind to 2018. The Trump administration has unilaterally exited JCPOA with Iran in compliance, and announced "unprecedented financial pressure" in pursuit of 12 sweeping demands, including a call for zero enrichment.

4/ As these measures are put in place, Secretary Pompeo is asked whether Iran will respond by stepping up its nuclear activities.

Pompeo: "We're confident that the Iranians will not make that decision".

5/ That assessment was incorrect.

As @CrisisGroup warned in Jan 2019, by upending JCPOA's core bargain - nuclear restrictions for economic relief - likelihood was that Iranians would respond to the evaporation of the latter by downgrading compliance with former.

6/ As Iran began breaching its commitments from May 2019, P4+1 stepped up efforts to salvage the agreement

Then it gets farcical: to justify triggering UN snapback, State Dept cites failure of European diplomacy to remedy US violation in claiming Iranian non-performance

7/ In other words: We're very sorry to report that the Europeans have not managed to offset the damage we are causing through our own policy, as a result of which Iran is undertaking activities we predicted wouldn't occur.

8/8 But this is where Pompeo's statement that "nuke deal is history" also wrong

Iran's growing stockpile & other breaches are worrying. But it's not irreversible break from its commitments. Return to JCPOA under different administration is possible

Proof? Here's State in May: