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Something that has long appealed to me about baseball is that it's ultimately a game of probability, rather than singular pre-decided outcomes.
Good teams don't always win, bad teams don't always lose, good hitters don't always hit, bad hitters don't always make outs.
Good teams don't always win, bad teams don't always lose, good hitters don't always hit, bad hitters don't always make outs.
Adjusting a starting lineup doesn't assure victory or defeat, it merely slightly adjusts the probability of outcomes. We see outliers all the time, as the player we count on fails, and the one we demand out of the lineup succeeds
We see it by the year, the week, the game, the AB
We see it by the year, the week, the game, the AB
Ultimately, all that matters to most is the final outcomes - wins, hits. A win reflects absolute success, and a defeat represents absolute failure, when ultimately a hit falling or an accurate call on a pitch outside of the strike zone is often the difference.
The 2020 Cincinnati #Reds are both the best and the worst Reds team I've seen in a long time. They've got the best team, the best players, but arguably the worst outcomes. Outcomes so poor that it seems inconceivable they could be reproduced.
This is a short 60 game season. A small sample size. Lots of weird things happen in small sample sizes. Everyone hopes for good outcomes, but alas, it's probably more like a bell curve. In larger samples performances tend to revert to a mean. I believe #Reds would.
A lot has gone wrong for these #Reds in this small sample size. The hitting has looked really bad. BABIP, which is at least PARTIALLY luck-based, is unsustainably poor. But, it's still small sample size, accentuated by a shortened season.
I still believe in many of these hitters
I still believe in many of these hitters
If I were in charge, I'd caution against any drastic "burn the house down" responses. Many think that's deserved, even necessary.
Organizational philosophy? Many key players are in their first or second year with team, developed with others. We're now desperate, looking to blame
Organizational philosophy? Many key players are in their first or second year with team, developed with others. We're now desperate, looking to blame
In retrospect, I wish the #Reds had kept Turner Ward - he got the blame last year, in his first season with the team, but things only got worse since. Or better yet, promoted Donnie Ecker, whose SF Giants have exceeded all expectations offensively.
Sometimes crazy outcomes happen in small sample sizes, without being part of any larger narrative. It's important to many to push it into some narrative, and relieving to identify candidates to blame, often for things outside of their control, or even perceptions of their feeling
Do the players and coaches care about games, their seasons, their careers? Are they even trying anymore? Yes, absolutely.
I think it's important for anyone in MLB to remain objective, though, to compartmentalize, rather than become bipolar, tied to whims of fate.
I think it's important for anyone in MLB to remain objective, though, to compartmentalize, rather than become bipolar, tied to whims of fate.
Rather than feeling betrayed, contemptful, and failed by the #Reds front office and related personnel, I feel sympathy and empathy for them. They had all the same reasons to be optimistic about this team as the fans, and receive the public scorn for deviant, outlier results.
