“Natural Resource Discoveries, Citizen Expectations and Household Decisions”

New WB paper from @myjumens and me.

We measure how much citizen’s expectations and behavior changes following major oil and gas discoveries

Link to paper: https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/796881598889032254/natural-resource-discoveries-citizen-expectations-and-household-decisions

Thread:1/5

Using Afrobarometer data we find discoveries trigger:
optimism about economy
optimism about own standards of living
And lead to:
fertility choices
apps to US green card lottery
Over time:
Expectations effect short-lived.
Behavior changes may have long lived effects. 2/5

The 'news shock' has big yet short-lived impacts on citizens expectations (12 months) but fertility and migration choices last.

If citizens are initially over-optimistic about the future following a major discovery, might such big life choices prove suboptimal? 3/5

Could this be another clue for how countries may face a 'presource curse'?

Some have had major growth disappointments and crises following big discoveries - maybe fueled by over-optimism.

See brand new working paper exploring this in Africa context:
https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/274381599578080257/how-africas-prospective-petroleum-producers-fell-victim-to-the-presource-curse

4/5

And a link back to the original presource curse article by
@LeighElston and @ZitamarNews that spotted the emerging phenomenon in Mozambique:
https://zitamar.com/mozambique-and-the-presource-curse/

And inspired our study that showed it extends far beyond Mozambique unfortunately:
https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/517431499697641884/evidence-for-a-presource-curse-oil-discoveries-elevated-expectations-and-growth-disappointments

5/5