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Alright, some notes on the MIL-MIA series:
1) Miami's offense is legit. Their playoff eFG% is consistent with their elite regular season number, and they've increased their FTr significantly in the postseason (unusual for a team that led the league in that category).
1) Miami's offense is legit. Their playoff eFG% is consistent with their elite regular season number, and they've increased their FTr significantly in the postseason (unusual for a team that led the league in that category).
2) Milwaukee's defense is (mostly) fine. Their good defensive lineups were quite effective. It was primarily attempts to juice the offense that led to subpar overall results on that end.
2) [cont.]
A point to consider re: MIL defense is how specialized each role was in the reg season. This led to a drop off when certain players were asked to adjust their roles for the matchup. This may have caught some off guard (including me!), but wasn't entirely unpredictable.
A point to consider re: MIL defense is how specialized each role was in the reg season. This led to a drop off when certain players were asked to adjust their roles for the matchup. This may have caught some off guard (including me!), but wasn't entirely unpredictable.
3) As many have noted, Malcolm Brogdon likely would have changed the entire tone of this series. Eric Bledsoe just isn't a very good postseason player. A real off-ball threat with playmaking ability and versatile defense could have made a real difference.
3) [cont.]
This result was less about Middleton's individual ability, and more the pressure on him as MIL's only viable pull-up threat in the HC. With some floor balance, Middleton could be a viable No. 2, but with a dearth of offensive talent in the No. 3 role he's not enough.
This result was less about Middleton's individual ability, and more the pressure on him as MIL's only viable pull-up threat in the HC. With some floor balance, Middleton could be a viable No. 2, but with a dearth of offensive talent in the No. 3 role he's not enough.
4) Erik Spoelstra is hands-down one of the best playoff coaches in the league. His rotations are elite, balancing each lineup well. His schemes and adjustments are top notch.
...And he actually plays his best players for big minutes. Unconventional, I know, but it does help.
...And he actually plays his best players for big minutes. Unconventional, I know, but it does help.
4) [cont.]
On a related note: Fire Bud into the sun.
Giannis, Middleton, and Wes all needed to play significantly more minutes. His adjustments were too little, too late. He's an elite RS coach, but gets too locked into what's worked all year vs what is needed here and now.
On a related note: Fire Bud into the sun.
Giannis, Middleton, and Wes all needed to play significantly more minutes. His adjustments were too little, too late. He's an elite RS coach, but gets too locked into what's worked all year vs what is needed here and now.
5. Jimmy Buckets is awesome, and it's time he gets the recognition he deserves.
The 'he only wants to win on his own terms' narrative needs to die. Twice in this series he carried the scoring load, with 30+ points. Twice in this series he took a back seat with 6-8 FGA. All wins.
The 'he only wants to win on his own terms' narrative needs to die. Twice in this series he carried the scoring load, with 30+ points. Twice in this series he took a back seat with 6-8 FGA. All wins.
5) [cont.]
Related: the idea that a poor spot-up shooter can only be effective on-ball is inherently flawed. Jimmy's a better shooter than he gets credit for, but his elite ability to cut, attack closeouts, and hit the open man means his defender often is punished for helping.
Related: the idea that a poor spot-up shooter can only be effective on-ball is inherently flawed. Jimmy's a better shooter than he gets credit for, but his elite ability to cut, attack closeouts, and hit the open man means his defender often is punished for helping.
6) Jae Crowder shot 1-2 on 2PA and 22-51 on 3PA in this series. Getting him to fully buy-in to that role is impressive. He really struggled to do essentially the same thing in CLE next to LeBron. He was a huge part of their success in this series.
7) Bam Adebayo is a monster. He's a Top 20 player in the NBA right now. Perhaps Top 15. You can see him growing in real time in these playoffs. He's made his fair share of errors, sometimes in key moments. But he rarely repeats them, and is growing into the prototypical modern 5.
8) Hat-tip to Brook Lopez. He had a throwback series, stepping up when his team desperately needed another source of offense. He also excelled in his floor spacing role while others created. Really great job, even though it wasn't quite enough for MIL.
9) I'm not sure it was possible, but MIL should have done everything in their power to trade for CP3 at the deadline. Perhaps they were blinded by their RS success. I'm lower on CP3 than much of analytically-inclined NBA Twitter, but they win a ring easily with him IMO.
10) MIA is a real threat to win the Title. They (likely) shouldn't be favored in either remaining series, as BOS is a tough matchup and either LA team has more high-end talent. But they are strong underdogs who are smart and versatile enough to find and leverage advantages.
