Key foreign policy adviser to Democrat presidential candidate @JoeBiden weighs in on UK Government acknowledgement of breaking international law over Northern Ireland protocol... https://twitter.com/ablinken/status/1303463396227063808

And Richie Neal, key chair of Ways & Means Committee, which approves trade deals just said this: “I sincerely hope the British government upholds rule of law and delivers on the commitments it made during Brexit negotiations, particularly in regard to the Irish border protocols”

All this while UK-US trade deal negotiation round ongoing right now - but little expectation of UK-US FTA being settled in this Presidential term, most timetables looking towards mid 2021 expiry of fast track trade negotiation mandate...

And although UK reneging on commitments to Ireland may appear more of an issue under a possible President Biden ... it was widely missed that Trump’s Trade rep made commitments to Neal’s committee in similar area a few weeks ago: https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1273361813888012291

Here’s the USTR lighthizer transcript including the question (obviously predates this weeks developments), where he says re the GFA, President Trump agrees “there’s no point negotiating” a US-UK trade agreement that sees “border put up” because it won’t pass Congress...

Now clearly, as we heard this morning, Govt argument is that it will break international law specifically to protect the GFA (& NI within the UK market) - but clearly the Neal/ Biden adviser view at least is rather sceptical on this.

With trade negotiations going on right now with the EU, and the US, and on internal market - let alone against the backdrop of weak pandemic afflicted corporate balance sheets, this is quite the set of 4D chess moves being attempted...

As I said at the time Lighthizer made these comments about the impact of NI on US-UK trade deals, unclear what the actual potential pinch point would be - perhaps a situation where UK reneged on Withdrawal Agreement in a no deal situation... https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1273362622981836802

Escalating now...
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi:

“The U.K. must respect the Northern Ireland Protocol as signed with the EU ..If the U.K. violates that international treaty/ undermines GFA ..there will be absolutely no chance of a U.S.-U.K. trade agreement passing Congress”.

So Democratic Party establishment saying one of the principle strategic aims of PM’s harder/ cleaner break Brexit - a US-UK trade deal - will be vetoed by Congress, if UK goes through with breaking international law & renege on agreed Treaty/ NI protocol...

The difference here is that Pelosi, Neal and Biden’s adviser are all specifically calling out the UK Government plan to renege on elements of the NI Protocol, clearly having no truck with the claim its being done to protect GFA...

But again - see upthread - USTR Lighthizer made some more general reassurances on this issue on behalf of President Trump too. The need for Congressional approval would remain regardless of who is in the White House.

As people are pointing out - should not come as much of a surprise - Irish embassy in DC have been working on this since Brexit, today rolled out the Taoiseach on US TV - the work of the ambassador to the US, before that here in London @DanMulhall https://twitter.com/irelandembusa/status/1303675379950006274?s=21

If protocol reneging UKIM provisions are actually activated, UK’s “new start” in January will be against backdrop of

- tariffs/ trade barriers/ difficult diplo relations with EU27, incl 3 G7 nations
- & shd Biden win, diplomatic issues with incoming White House too re NI...