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While the Conservatives are yet to get their attack lines right on the UKIM and devolution, I do think that framing it with the M4 is a fine bit of strategic thinking for next year’s elections.
To explain in thread form: 1/7
To explain in thread form: 1/7
By doing so they have a clear example of a popular deliverable (let’s leave aside the well travelled debate on its merits and problems for now) and are seeking to create a binary choice between devolution and the M4. 2/7
I’d go out on a limb to suggest that a significant number of people (especially in South Wales) would opt for the M4 in that choice, or at the very least will be suitably indifferent to let it play out. 3/7
But doing so also has an added benefit. It potentially pushes those who opt for devolution further down the independence route and into the arms of Plaid. I assume they know this given the ‘day that devolution died’ comments we are seeing.
So what does this mean? 4/7
So what does this mean? 4/7
Welsh Labour are now stuck in the middle of this binary if it’s allowed to play out. It can’t give ground on the M4 and won’t support independence.
All it can do is seek to defend the devolution status-quo (hardly a sexy election platform) 5/7
All it can do is seek to defend the devolution status-quo (hardly a sexy election platform) 5/7
As a result it gets eroded from both sides next May. This is unlikely to be enough to prevent it from being the largest party again, but from the Tory perspective they win regardless. They also sure up some of their wavering Abolition supporting members.
Some smart work. 6/7
Some smart work. 6/7
Obviously much more complex in practice, but as I’ve said before: in a future United Kingdom of England & Wales where a Wales is forced to pick between independence and abolition, I still think abolition is underpriced. 7/7
