. @BBCThree was the 1st major TV channel to close its broadcast platform & reinvent itself online. 4 years on @BBC is considering bringing it back to linear TV. My new study is 1st to analyse changes in how #BBCThree is consumed & the shows it offers: 1/21

https://neilthurman.com/files/downloads/BBC-Three.pdf

Today @EndersAnalysis publish an edited version of my study as a report to their subscribers. The full version, which will appear in @Convergence_NMT, is available now for everyone to read. I summarise the main findings in the thread below. 2/21

https://neilthurman.com/files/downloads/BBC-Three.pdf

First, @BBCThree as a destination is viewed for 89% less time/year since it reinvented itself online than it was on linear television before. Even including the viewing of #BBCThree shows aired on other BBC TV channels, the decline is still 72%. 3/21

https://neilthurman.com/files/downloads/BBC-Three.pdf

Most—79%—of the online viewing is still via TV sets—e.g. watching #BBCThree on @BBC's #BVOD, @BBCiPlayer, on a SmartTV. So, the TV set remains the preferred device for consuming televisual content, even at a channel that has reinvented itself online. 4/21

https://neilthurman.com/files/downloads/BBC-Three.pdf

Gross ½ Hour Claims is another metric showing how the intensity with which @BBCThree was viewed changed after it stopped broadcasting. #BBCThree's GHCs fell 88%—with little difference between its target audience of 16–34 year olds & those aged 35+. 5/21

https://neilthurman.com/files/downloads/BBC-Three.pdf

This fall contrasts with @BBCThree's broadcast competitors whose collective GHCs rose 5.6%, & raises doubts about whether, in the context of #BBCThree, young audiences were, as former @BBC DG Tony Hall said, "most ready to move to an online world". 6/21

https://neilthurman.com/files/downloads/BBC-Three.pdf

Time spent with @BBCThree fell about as sharply as it did at @Independent & @NME, suggesting that the negative effects on time spent caused by closing their offline platforms may be similar in degree for both TV channels & print publications. 7/21

https://neilthurman.com/files/downloads/BBC-Three.pdf

How did @BBCThree's audience size—effectively its reach—change post broadcast? Comparing the year before it stopped broadcasting against the year after shows its 16–34 year-old target audience shrank 69% on a weekly basis & 60% on a monthly basis. 8/21

https://neilthurman.com/files/downloads/BBC-Three.pdf

#BBCThree's post-broadcast losses in weekly (−70%) & monthly (−63%) adult British viewers of all ages were similar. I estimate the falls in audience size were up to 5 times higher than they would have been if @BBCThree had continued broadcasting. 9/21

https://neilthurman.com/files/downloads/BBC-Three.pdf

#BBCThree’s falls in audience size contrast with its broadcast competitors. Their audiences did decline, but to a lesser degree. The closure of @BBCThree’s broadcast platform caused at least three-quarters of the drop in its audience size. 10/21

https://neilthurman.com/files/downloads/BBC-Three.pdf

Why was @BBCThree’s monthly audience sharply reduced when *it* closed its offline platform when @Independent managed to maintain its monthly readership after it went online-only in the same year? Read the full paper to find out! 11/21

https://neilthurman.com/files/downloads/BBC-Three.pdf

Although #BBCThree decided one editorial pillar of its online reinvention should be ‘Make Me Laugh’, the % of its output devoted to comedy actually fell post-switch, likely because it dropped US animation imports like #FamilyGuy & #AmericanDad. 12/21

https://neilthurman.com/files/downloads/BBC-Three.pdf

Although comedy makes up a lower proportion of the minutes of programming available on @BBCThree since it closed its broadcast platform, the genre accounts for a higher proportion of viewing minutes since the switch. 13/21

https://neilthurman.com/files/downloads/BBC-Three.pdf

#BBCThree has—as planned—increased the % of drama & factual in its output since it reinvented itself online. However, factual now accounts for a lower % of viewing mins. Drama, though, now accounts for a higher % of post-broadcast viewing mins. 14/21

https://neilthurman.com/files/downloads/BBC-Three.pdf

Did, then, @BBCThree's online reinvention influence the types of programme watched? Possibly, but only multivariate analysis accounting for audience demos & programme vailability/scheduling/marketing/critical+pop acclaim etc. will tell us for sure. 15/21

https://neilthurman.com/files/downloads/BBC-Three.pdf

#BBCThree is no longer the only TV channel to have reinvented itself online. In Jan 2020 the Danish Broadcasting Corporation's @UltraDR & @DR3TV stopped broadcasting. Will their experiences mirror @BBCThree's? I expect they will. 16/21

https://neilthurman.com/files/downloads/BBC-Three.pdf

This study develops Media Platform Cessation Theory in 2 ways. 1st, showing how change in the size of a media outlet’s audience after closing its offline platform may be affected by % of its audience that consumes it exclusively offline before. 17/21

https://neilthurman.com/files/downloads/BBC-Three.pdf

The 2nd way this study develops Media Platform Cessation Theory is by showing how, irrespective of media platform, when media brands close their offline platforms they suffer sudden & substantial falls in the time audiences spend with them. 18/21

https://neilthurman.com/files/downloads/BBC-Three.pdf

Thanks to Julian Aquilina who was a fantastic collaborator on the @EndersAnalysis version of my study. @BARBtelevision & @The_IPA Touchpoints provided data & @Telmar & Digital-i data services. 19/21

https://neilthurman.com/files/downloads/BBC-Three.pdf

Special thanks to Matt Ross & Tony Forester at Digital-i, @The_IPA’s Daniel Flynn, @Telmar’s Kevin Johnson, and @BARBtelevision’s Simon Bolus, Sarah Mowbray & @DougWhelpdale. 20/21

https://neilthurman.com/files/downloads/BBC-Three.pdf

At @LMU_Muenchen’s @Ifkw_lmu, Velina Chekelova, Iuliia Khobotova, Antonia Klatt, Cosima Kopfinger, Iuliia Kozlovskaia, Maire Palias, Kseniia Tikhomirova, Lisa Tratner, Sarah Will, Chaoying Yuan & Tianrun Zhao helped greatly with data coding. 21/21

https://neilthurman.com/files/downloads/BBC-Three.pdf