I'm thinking about Blockbuster today. If you look closely, you can see the bones of this once-ubiquitous video rental chain in strip malls across America.

Changes in technology and consumer behavior reduced a 9000-store empire to a single oddity/relic in Bend, Oregon. (1/6)

Blockbuster met the market in one way: they owned lots of movies, people wanted to watch movies, so they went to Blockbuster to go rent that movie. But Netflix (the DVD service) began to erode BB's market share long before streaming services finally struck the killing blow. (2/6)

When I listen to many #uranium CEOs talk about the market, I bet it sounds like the Blockbuster CEO in 2007. "Consumers *must* come to the market in this way. It was done this way X years ago, and it must be done this way again. These sales are inevitable...we're waiting." (3/6)

I'm skeptical of the insistence from the sell-side (and the equity-side) that LT contracting must return. A few factors - uncertain outlook for nuclear, changes in how electricity/power is sold, widely available financing, and utility consolidation - have changed the game. (4/6)

Without belaboring the analogy too much, who is the Netflix to other producers' Blockbuster? Who is nimble enough to profitably place pounds in a new market dynamic? I can't help but see parallels to the fossilized video rental chain - so call me an idiot if it suits you. (5/6)

tl;dr utilities still need uranium, but structural changes to the uranium market give end users alternative routes to traditionally-contracted long-term supply. It will be interesting to see which producers meet the market's demands, and who stumbles via lack of adaptation. (6/6)

P.S. for a more concrete thought: if the mid-term trade can exist in a pay-to-produce mode (rather than an inventory-sales mode), it might leverage different capital rates between producer, financier, & end user to create forward prices/payment timing beneficial to all 3 parties.

ex.: a reliable producer can bring uranium to market in three years. Producer gets cash today, utility pays cash upon delivery, and the financier makes money on the spread between their cost of money and what they can sell to the end user. Risk involved, obviously, but possible.