I have no idea if Europe, with the United States or alone, will stop #NordStream2. What I do know is that stopping the project will not change the basic contours of the energy relationship between Europe and Russia. Maybe not the geopolitical relationship either. Thread.

For 60 years, we’ve seen and tried it all: sanctions (1962, 1981, 2014); trade and cross-border investment; high prices and low prices; windfalls and austerity for the Soviet Union or Russia. People have drawn all sorts of lessons from that history.

My own read is this: for the things that we care about in the West – is Russia autocratic or not; is Russia collaborative or combative overseas – for those big questions, energy is a poor predictor. You can write a compelling story without worrying much about energy.

(This thread is largely drawn from this May 2018 piece; if you’re interested in the longer version of that argument, with figures, references, etc.: https://www.csis.org/analysis/whos-afraid-russian-gas-bridging-transatlantic-divide)

But we fuss about energy because it’s easy – big, visible, people don’t understand it; it allows politicians to “do something” without actually doing something; they toss vague phrases (“energy blackmail,” “energy weapon,” etc.), voila, it all seems so … grand.

(If you think I am exaggerating see this Tweet from Senator Ted Cruz: how do you even argue with this?)

This discourse leaves all the hard stuff out: how to really counter Russian power and influence; how to fill foreign policy vacuums; how to firm up physical and virtual defenses; how to narrow social and political cleavages; how to track and counter Russian wealth overseas, etc.

Meanwhile the energy agenda gets sidetracked and muddied; no matter what Russia does our response is anyway the same: strengthen the internal market for energy and accelerate the diversification from fossil fuels. That's it.

Where does this leaves #NordStream2? If that’s the best thing to “hit,” sure. But what next? What comes after you’ve stopped the project? What have you accomplished? People merely insinuate that stopping the project is a WIN—but why? Let’s spend more time on that… (fin)