Just presented research with @dminnes for @jrf_uk on the coming wave of COVID-19 mass unemployment and how to stop it

First Q: Which jobs are most likely to be lost in the next phase of COVID?

A: Non-Key Worker occupations that require people to work closely with others

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Second Q: Who works in these jobs most at risk of being destroyed?

A: Low earners in low-income households. Around 40% of people on the minimum wage are at high risk of losing their job vs. less than 1% of those earning more than £41k

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Third Q: Which areas will be hardest hit?

A: It is the weakest economies that will lose the most jobs. Places like Doncaster and Mansfield that suffered the most during deindustrialisation in the 80's will also be hardest hit by a wave of COVID-19 unemployment

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Fourth Q: Why not let firms go bankrupt?

A: Because firms that have temporarily reduced capacity due to social distancing could thrive once the pandemic passes. And even if we have to transition to a new normal, we should get there slowly without mass unemployment

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So what should we do stop a wave of mass unemployment?

Firstly, we should put in place a targeted and temporary extension of the furlough scheme for firms that have reduced capacity due to required social distancing measures

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Secondly, there is going to be some rise in unemployment even with a furlough scheme extension. So we should put in place measures to help people move into new jobs as well directly create jobs to stop mass unemployment

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Finally, it has been great working with everyone @jrf_uk on this piece. Although there are only two names on the report, this has been a team effort from inception to publication. Thank you all!

#ReshapingTheEconomy

https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/storm-ready-how-keep-us-afloat-unemployment-hits

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