Read on Twitter
1/
I N C R E D I B L E
New paper shows how confusion between CFR and IFR undergirds the original March case for lockdowns, and the hysteria in the first place.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/7ACD87D8FD2237285EB667BB28DCC6E9/S1935789320002980a.pdf/public_health_lessons_learned_from_biases_in_coronavirus_mortality_overestimation.pdf
<thread>
I N C R E D I B L E
New paper shows how confusion between CFR and IFR undergirds the original March case for lockdowns, and the hysteria in the first place.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/7ACD87D8FD2237285EB667BB28DCC6E9/S1935789320002980a.pdf/public_health_lessons_learned_from_biases_in_coronavirus_mortality_overestimation.pdf
<thread>
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“Sampling bias in coronavirus mortality calculations led to a ten-fold increased mortality overestimation in March 11, 2020 U.S. Congressional testimony.“
“Sampling bias in coronavirus mortality calculations led to a ten-fold increased mortality overestimation in March 11, 2020 U.S. Congressional testimony.“
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“This bias most likely followed from information bias due to misclassifying a seasonal influenza infection fatality rate as a case fatality rate, evident in a http://NEJM.org editorial.“
“This bias most likely followed from information bias due to misclassifying a seasonal influenza infection fatality rate as a case fatality rate, evident in a http://NEJM.org editorial.“
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“Evidence from the World Health Organization confirmed that the approximate case fatality rate of the coronavirus is generally no higher than that of seasonal influenza.”
“Evidence from the World Health Organization confirmed that the approximate case fatality rate of the coronavirus is generally no higher than that of seasonal influenza.”
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“By early May, 2020, mortality levels from COVID-19 were considerably below predicted overestimations, a result which the public attributed to successful mitigating measures to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus.”
“By early May, 2020, mortality levels from COVID-19 were considerably below predicted overestimations, a result which the public attributed to successful mitigating measures to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus.”
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This led to hundreds of thousands of false comparisons like this. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1260311691600039936?s=20
This led to hundreds of thousands of false comparisons like this. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1260311691600039936?s=20
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When the actual comparison is like this. About the same. Safer than flu for young, a nasty flu for old.
When the actual comparison is like this. About the same. Safer than flu for young, a nasty flu for old.
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My very first tweet on COVID implicitly pointed out that the IFR would be much much lower. (Although at the time I didn’t even know the technical terms for IFR and CFR.) https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1237406449959043072?s=20
My very first tweet on COVID implicitly pointed out that the IFR would be much much lower. (Although at the time I didn’t even know the technical terms for IFR and CFR.) https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1237406449959043072?s=20
9/
My subtweet above (first one on COVID) was March 10.
On March 11 the mistaken testimony to the U.S. Congress occurs, confusing CFR and IFR, and comparing flu IFR to coronavirus CFR.
By March 12, folks had gone full zombie apocalypse. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1238265849032695810?s=20
My subtweet above (first one on COVID) was March 10.
On March 11 the mistaken testimony to the U.S. Congress occurs, confusing CFR and IFR, and comparing flu IFR to coronavirus CFR.
By March 12, folks had gone full zombie apocalypse. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1238265849032695810?s=20
10/
It was clear folks were bent on breaking everything.
Attempts to undo the damage of that false comparison were impossible.
But one had to try!
“carry on, because the society / economy depends on it. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1238223263521820678?s=20
It was clear folks were bent on breaking everything.
Attempts to undo the damage of that false comparison were impossible.
But one had to try!
“carry on, because the society / economy depends on it. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1238223263521820678?s=20
11/
Five days later and it was fully clear this was a worldwide mass psychosis event. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1239995212572876802?s=20
Five days later and it was fully clear this was a worldwide mass psychosis event. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1239995212572876802?s=20
12/
This COVID mass psychosis event we are not in any way getting out of quickly.
Fear of infection is sticky. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1250804532013142018?s=20
This COVID mass psychosis event we are not in any way getting out of quickly.
Fear of infection is sticky. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1250804532013142018?s=20
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This level of societal fear, hysteria, and psychosis amounts to a bottom-up cultural revolution. They can last for generations, enforced by your neighbors. Like hijab in Iran. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1276481497051156480?s=20
This level of societal fear, hysteria, and psychosis amounts to a bottom-up cultural revolution. They can last for generations, enforced by your neighbors. Like hijab in Iran. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1276481497051156480?s=20
14/
Reckless errors like this one, and the subsequent echo chamber of positive feedback of misinformation and fear, led to a radical miscalibration in people’s probability distributions on virus related hypotheses.
Common sense was ruined. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1300466764149555204?s=20
Reckless errors like this one, and the subsequent echo chamber of positive feedback of misinformation and fear, led to a radical miscalibration in people’s probability distributions on virus related hypotheses.
Common sense was ruined. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1300466764149555204?s=20
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Lockdowns were not common sense.
But with hysteria they suddenly were. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1254796958964858882?s=20
Lockdowns were not common sense.
But with hysteria they suddenly were. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1254796958964858882?s=20
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Masks went from “obviously not so useful for regular folk“ to “the SAFETY DEMANDS it.” https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1300201438145122306?s=20
Masks went from “obviously not so useful for regular folk“ to “the SAFETY DEMANDS it.” https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1300201438145122306?s=20
