Week of 9/7 - P3 CFB Thread:

UAB @ Miami (-13.5/52 - Thurs) Second game of season for UAB. They played Central Arkansas last Thursday, who were also on their second game. Their offense was toothless against Austin Peay but found their legs more effectively against UAB. They lost 45-35 to UAB but deceptively

They were down 28-7 in 1H and UAB was getting ball back. Muffed punt resulted in a sudden change TD next play on a vert. 28-14. Next possession, UCA strips UAB and scores TD. 28-21. Final possession of game against UAB backups, they score to lose by a more respectable 10.

21 of 35 were pretty trashy, but they also failed to execute, missed a couple FG, either way it was an undeserved 35. UAB defense wasn't bad. They did allow almost 5 YPC which wasn't great and they gave up a couple shot pass plays but UAB secondary mainly kept in front of them

UAB offense was bizarre. Their plan seemed pretty standard, run the ball, pepper the TEs, throw some shots to Watkins, but they rotated 2 QBs throughout game. Both were fine, but it was weird. Not too much to be gleaned, hanging 45 on a FCS foe is good but not a ton to learn.

I do think the emergence of a second TE and WR will help them, both guys looked good. They arent gonna be able to play their typical game against Miami. Styles make fights and they are gonna have to play faster, focus on passing, and generally play catch up in this game.

Against CUSA foes, they can play old school Steelers football, but highly unlikely as two score dog facing a potentially potent offense where they are out-athleted. The matchup of the UAB secondary against Miami pass catchers should be more competitive than most CUSA v ACC games.

The huge change for Miami comes in off style and philosophy. Their new offense should look a bit like a faster-paced Lincoln Riley offense. It's air-raid ish that can have heavy emphasis on QB run game. Unlike Oklahoma, they are going to go fast. Lashlee learned HUNH from Malzahn

The OL was abysmal last year and the schemes were so complex that the OL's youth and shortcoming combined with inconsistent QB play and overcomplicated WR assignments resulted in a real dumpster fire. That should all be remedied this year? To what degree? Not sure. They benefit

from returning all OL and get transfer help. Most importantly, they have the D'Eriq King, the most dynamic QB in CFB now running a system he was born to run. Pass catchers unproven but not lacking any talent. They should scheme wins and also win majority of individual matchups

Defensively, Miami loses R1 pick on the EDGE due to opt out and they finally turn over all their LBs that have been there forever. This is Miami, so they still have NFL talent. They still have two incredibly talented EDGE and one of the nation's best secondary players in Hall.

Miami pass rush could be pretty fierce and it's possible that UAB lacks any pass catcher able to make plays aside from Watkins. I do think it's going to be a high volume game and the pace change for Miami was poorly accounted for in opener at 45.5. I took the over. That was my

fav opener of early set of games. Unfortunately, I bought a little back on 48 when it was still on board and I saw UAB QB Tyler Johnston get hurt. It was minimal but my position was unfortunately reduced some which I wish it wasn't, but it is what it is. Bill Clark is solid

UAB benfits from already having a game, but I think they have some personnel issues in this game that they arent accustomed to. Key to an easy over will be a hot start by King, which seems likely given his scorched earth summer camps he's having. I lean both favorite and over.

I'll go with the Canes 40-20.

Cuse @ UNC (-22/63.5) Highest paced game of the weekend. Cuse offense was a mess last season and unfortunately for them, the OL is possibly gonna be a mess to start the year. If they overperform in that area, the offense should return to closer to Babers' expected levels.

Safe to say the data is showing he could be in a bit over his head in the ACC. Reading tea leaves and following some offseason stuff, there are quite a few guys on the team who seem dissatisfied and I'm not sure this team is super together right now. I don't have inside info

but I'm not confident about this team. Their strength appears to be the secondary and there is potential for the passing offense to be good if the OL can do much for them. They are going to be playing from behind here all game and needing to throw it a zillion times.

Back to the defense, they switch to a 3-3-5, which I would say 20 teams or less run as their base. Think San Diego State, they can be super tough to run on when done well. In theory, they have enough talent in secondary to win some 1v1s. I doubt they have it very well installed.

They had 3 spring practices and the corona summer to install. Offense has new OC but he's a veer disciple, so no change there. The 3-3-5 can confuse QBs, but I think Howell and Longo scheme will be tougher to foil. Their scheme is so basic and there is incredible continuity

between offensive staff, QB, RB, and WRs. Athlon said that no other staffer on Cuse has any 3-3-5 experience other than the DC. I'm all over the map with my thoughts, but this could be a mess for Cuse, I will just be frank about that. UNC is prob the prime buy as emerging force

They are recruiting at elite level & will enjoy a bunch of positives with current personnel and continuity this offseason. 10 starters back on the offense for UNC. NFL players at QB and WR. Babers sorta said they plan to take away the run in this game, which will be fine for unc

They are going to run a ton of plays and boast one of the best off in the nation. On defense, they have some talent in the secondary, which is where they wanna be strong against Cuse, esp given this game script. I think UNC and Cuse trajectory as programs are rapidly going oppo

I really thought that I was gonna like Cuse once I saw how high this line opened, but the further that I've gotten into this one, I don't see it. I bet the over 60 when it opened. Incredible pace and skill talent for a total barely at 60. If you followed me LY, you know I can be

stubborn on Cuse overs and while the results were a mixed bag, the market almost always agreed and they certainly have to this point. There is enough concern about Cuse OL and enough talent in both secondaries that I wouldn't say go nuts at current, but worth a poke. 48-21 Heels

ULL @ Iowa State (-11.5/56) ULL is ascending SBC program. Well coached, know their identity. Problem for them in this game is that the identity they've built isn't likely to work. Much like with UAB, they want to bully with good OL and pound their weaker foes. Wont happen here

Additionally, they aren't as well equipped to improv and do bunch of chucking it around the yard. Good QB & they don't have any headliners at WR but these are Louisana athletes, which are high caliber. They lost 38-28 to Miss St last year and year prior, they lost 56-10 and 56-14

to P5 foes. App State was best defense they faced last year and lost 17-7, but they scored 27+ in every other game. They lose a couple of NFL OL which can be very challenging for a G5, even one that recruits very well. Iowa State runs a 3-3-5 defense that I talked abt w Cuse

This can be an incredibly challenging scheme to run the ball against, which is what ULL wants to do. This should be a tremendous DL for the Clones and a defense that matches up extremely well with ULL in general. I think ULL is going to have a very tough time staying on schedule

Looking at the Iowa State offense, this should be their best group in the Campbell era. They finally have players with P5 abilities on the OL, NFL QB, NFL RB, NFL TE, and a bevvy of talented WRs. ULL wont see a team with this skill talent again in 2020. ULL's big problem last yr

was inability to stop the run. In fact, it was downright embarrassing to watch at times. They are woefully thin on the DL and they should get bullied. prob not BYU/Navy mauling, but huge edge to ISU. Much like ULL prefers to do, this is gonna open up play action and explosives

Iowa State has generally been a team I've backed as a dog and faded as a favorite. Its not uncommon for me to get suckered in on them early in the year in similar spots and feel disappointed, but I really like the matchup and situation for them. I played Clones -10/11 and

and strongly considered U58 as well before it got bet down. I think this will generally be a defensive game but Iowa State's offense should have the big edge. Breece Hall should have a good one. I'll go with the Clones 34-16.

La Tech @ Baylor (-18/57) I don't like La tech this year. This is anecdotal, but its very tough for G5s to replace multi year starting QBs. While Smith never lived up to his hype, especially in CFF, you knew what you were gonna get with him. New OC this year but its internal

shouldn't see a huge shift in philosophy. Breaking in new QB, so how do you protect him against a P5 in the opener? To my knowledge, they haven't announced a QB either. This scheme is very QB friendly but I'm pessimistic about their chances in this one. Tons of talented skill

guys, particularly at WR. It's Louisiana, after all. They have to replace a significant amount on the OL. The good news is they face a Baylor defense that needs to be rebuilt. I mean REBUILT. 10 starters gone, 250+ career starts. They were the B12 best defense last year.

They have a lot more talent and quality returning on offense but this is a new scheme and Fedora has coached enough ball to know missing all 15 spring practices is tough for a new install. The good news is that has one of the B12 top QBs in Charlie Brewer. Surrounded by +skill

The OL was a signifcant liability last year and this team still managed to make the Sugar Bowl (where their defense was shredded by GEORGE PICKENS!) but they are gonna need to re-tool and do it fast. They are also gonna have to do it against a scrappy program. Skip Holtz is tough

as an underdog. More than a decade ago when i was learning how to handicap and think for myself, I used to auto play Holtz as a dog and did quite well, if memory serves. I think we are going to see Baylor increase the tempo on offense this year, but I don't think warp speed

La tech loses some very good players on their defense as well and now prob wont have a guy that can matchup 1v1 w Thornton like they would in Robertson. Their disadvantage in the secondary may be larger than their DL against the Baylor OL. 9 of 12 top tacklers gone and new scheme

So weve got 3 out of 4 new schemes in place between both teams, and the one consistent doesn't have playcalling experience. This total opened around 54/54.5 and I almost bet the over a few times. Ultimately, the potential variance is a bit higher than what I liked, but thats

my lean. I couldnt lay the big numbers with Baylor in this game. I really like this offense this year and I think this is a favorable matchup, but too many questions abound for me. Will look to a few props here. 38-20 Baylor.

EKU @ WVU (-40.5/55.5) EKU off the 59-0 beatdown by Marshall. I still dont know anything about them other than they are really bad. I don't have any interest in this one. I would assume from a DFS standpoint that just about anybody for WVU is game on.

The WVU offense should be much improved. Theyve gotta replace a couple of book end tackles but that shouldn't be a big factor in this game against an FCS foe. I like them better with Doege at QB, who is officially QB1 now. Tempo should be swift for them.

One defense, big ? will be how they replace a couple of starting corners. Very important against Big 12 foes, less so against EKU. Brown took Troy from 4-8 to 10-3 from Y1-Y2. I think that's unlikely, but I could buy this team and their potential in 2021. Good game to maul some1

This OL was so abysmal last year I think they would do well to just set these guys up to eat lunches for an hour and pour one on EKU. Little rivalry between WVU and Marshall, so will they want to do more than 59-0 last week? Maybe. No idea, prob bloodshed: WVU 51-7

GT @ FSU (-12/52.5) Think both teams will be improved this yr. GT another year further removed from the option on offense. Their skill talent is beefing up rapidly. The OL should be better, they have the most underrated RB room in the country, a WR room w potential, but ? at QB

Graham has the most expereince and flashed some good things last year but wasn't good enough in the intermediate passing game. He was only a FR, so if he gets the nod, he should be better. The more interesting options are the TrFR in Sims and Gleason.

Sims was a 4-star that committed to FSU. He's getting rave reviews out of camp and I think if I had to wager on it, it will be his offense by the end of the year. Will they give him the keys in week one? I don't know. This offense likes to move fast and has better knowledge now

FSU had a tumultuous off-season with outspoken players as there was seemingly either issues or misconceptions between the relationship of new HC Norvell and the players. Those seem to be in rearview, but worth watching early in year to see how dialed in the team is in weird year

While they wont have a familiar offense to run, they have a familiar QB in James Blackman. There really wasn't another choice to make at this point, IMO. Much like I said with GT QBs, he's shown flashes, but his line has plagued him and he's had a low ceiling as a result.

There seems to be reasons for optimism surrounding the OL, but I don't have a great sense. They hired a good OL coach. If they can get serviceable OL play, they've got a 1-2 punch in Corbin and Webb that I think can closely replicate what Akers was able to do. Less disadvantages

and both guys have skill sets that will get them NFL looks. At WR, they have the most terrifying WR in the conf in Scary Terry and they have both quality and depth alongside him, as to be expected at FSU. Both teams will have an abundance of skill talent on display.

Defensively, GT strength secondary. The DL was pretty terrible in '19, but the addition of Clayton from UF and the other guys growing up should help them, but I don't suspect they will be good. I believe that even w FSU OL ?s, they are going to win the LOS battle and have balance

The FSU def has more playmakers and it starts with Marvin Wilson the disruptor on the DL. Like the offense, they have a new scheme to learn. If things go south for GT on offense here I think it will be bc FSU DL eats em up. They will be without Hamsah Nasirildeen a potential R1 S

Pace, offensive improvement, skill guys that can take top off, few elements led me to going over 51.5. Not a game to go crazy on, have to account for both OLs going into toilet again and making this a mess. I like the Noles to win something like 35-21

Duke @ ND (-19.5/54.5) Duke has best passer now since Daniel Jones in Clemson transfer Chase Brice. Still lacks skill talent depth but the trio of Jackson, Calhoun, and Gray are about as good as they are gonna get. The OL has been a big problem against the big boys recently.

Im buying some improvement but not sure how good they will be. They will face an Irish defense that has a ton of talent. However, much of it is unproven. Their DL was ravaged by graduation, but they have a couple of very good and experienced LBs. Overall, they should hold up here

They have the first half of the season to grow into the game. They have some turnover in the secondary, but they should be fine in this game, as long as they don't get hit by rona this week. The Irish offense is going to be led by a nasty OL and experienced QB. They will lean OL

and this could be the type of unit that has punished in past. Believe it or not, the strength of the Duke team is prob the DL, in particular their ability to disrupt the passer with two of the confs best EDGE. They may be susceptible up the guy though against run, we shall see.

ND has gross lack of talent and returning production from their pass catchers. One of their big issues in years past is they don't have enough speed at receiver to play with the bible belt teams when it matters. They try to remedy that with some gadget guys, but I'm unimpressed

I think the Duke secondary is going to be formidable present a real challenge for them. One thing coach cut has done when he's badly outclassed is try to shorten the game. We saw him run triple option against Bama in the open, which was nothing short of truly, utterly delightful

He was never gonna win the game but he wasn't gonna get his mathletes embarrassed as badly on national TV. lets not confuse ND with Bama like Te'o confused his GF with a catfish, but I think Cutty will want to ugly this one up, even if he has a capable passer in this one.

I didnt look at this game until late in the process and the total had been bet down and then back up to 56.5. In retrospect, I don't know why it was bet back up. This one has the look of a sweet under, and I took the inflated number. I think Duke can hang, but I prefer the total

There are very few games that have been/will be played to this point in the season where the lack of scoring will primarily be due to quality defense, but this is one of them, a real under spot. Theoretically, pace could get brisk at times, but banking on Cutty history. 30-17 ND

Ark St @ Kansas State (-10.5/54.5) I havent looked at this game in detail. I think Ark St needs to put this 2QB system to bed though and roll with the future in Hatcher. Their OL didn't do any favors and now face a trench program in KSU. Skill talent down at WR and face mix

of solid vets and really highly regarded young guys for the Cats. Wolves only went up in class once last year and bad barometer game in the 55-0 loss in Athens. Memphis had bunch of success running and passing last week. K St far diff offense and will want to bully and bang on em

They lose all 5 OL which makes strategy a big ? early in year. Much like my thoughts on ISU, I don't prefer to take K St in this type of favorite role. I don't know they are exploisuve enough for my tastes, but they do have a couple dynamic options in Knowles and Youngblood

at WR who should create issues for ASU. I'll pass. 30-20 Cats

Pause in our regularly scheduled programming for me jumping up in weight with the big boys. Few props for tomorrow night:

CEH over 30.5 rec yards
Fuller over 60.5 rec yards
Fuller to score TD +200
Fuller to score 2 TD +1200
Fuller to score 3 TD +8000

Austin Peay @ Pitt (-27/48.5) AP with a brutal showing in week one against UCA. Should be better here, but I can't see any way this Pitt DL doesn't eat them up something fierce. I'm sure they will be better with their long snapper and acclaimed WR, but this could be ugly.

Not a chance in hades I lay 27 points with the Nard Dog. It's best to forget that this game exists. I think on the other side of the ball, Pitt should do whatever they want. Imagine they work hard to establish the run against a FCS foe, something they didn't do well LY.

I dont see anything to get excited about in this one. I'll go NARD DOG 40-10.

Missouri State @ Oklahoma (-42.5/66.5) MS comes up and plays a big boy every year and gets obliterated every year. 72-43, 58-17, and 58-6 the last three years against Missouri, Ok State, and Tulane. Bobby Petrino is their new HC, so he brought with him a ton of transfers.

I dont know much about their personnel but BP said OL has a ways to go. I think Oklahoma could stay on the throttle a bit and empty the bench. They don't play at high tempo so there wont be tons of snaps in a game with a mid 60's total. They will prob score on every real drive

Games like this are all about how bad does the favorite want to smash. I don't know. Too many variables that I can't account for. Oklahoma wins 63-13, almost a point in MOV for every $ the PPV costs - a deal!

Clemson @ Wake (+33/60) 63-3 and 52-3 wins for Clemson last two years. Comparable Clemson team and worse Wake team. Even though it's Gameday and a conf game, my previous sentiment remains, how bad does favorite wanna smash? Not sure. Wake operates at warp speed but Clemson

tempo should wane throughout the game as they empty the bench. I don't think Dabo will want to embarrass Clawson for sport. Wake has losses and concerns at pretty much every position group on both sides of the ball. I think this will be a rebuilding year for them.

I don't have any interest in this game. Could be worth following the live line and trying to discern when both teams are gonna shut things down and possibly work an under. May have some prop thoughts. I'll go Clemson 48-13.

WKU @ Ville (-12/58) 38-21 Ville last year. Deceptive scoreline. Pass was supposed to start but Cunningham did in his place. Built 31-7 HT lead on 7 of 10 passing thanks to Tutu Atwell. Cunningham knocked out of game early 3Q and then QB3 guided them home in a bland 2H.

After game, Helton commented about they just lost the battle at LOS. Very common and to be expected for a CUSA foe against ACC team. That could happen again, although WKU has what should be an improved OL and a P5 transfer at QB that is a bona fide dual threat.

I think the WKU offense could be pretty good in this one. I think their defense could be good again, but not sure about this matchup. I don't think they will have an answer for Atwell, after he had his coming out party for them in this game last year w 5-145-3

One area where the script could be flipped some is if WKU's two talented DE can get after the two new OT for Ville. The staff has said this week pretty much their entire plan is to craft a scheme to not let Tutu beat them. That may mean they get gashed on ground or other WRs step

up. Their pass-catchers arent a bunch of slouches beyond Tutu. I like WKU this year and I love the direction that Ville is headed. I stared at the total of 56 for weeks in hopes it would come down a bit and I'd go over. The side has been up and down but only the over taken money

Im fascinated by this game and looking forward to it, but don't have anything I've dialed into and played yet. I could see a vast array of outcomes but much will depend on how ready Piggy is to run this scheme after transferring in. I'll go 40-24 Ville

UTEP @ Texas (-43/58) UTEP got in first game last week against Stone Cold Steve F Austin. They won, which is good! However, they didn't look particularly impressive doing so against a pretty poor lower level club. They only ran for 4.1 YPC which is sub optimal for a running off

Fortunately, Hardison appears to be a better passer than what they've had in past, but 24 points and 5.6 YPP is very meh. One bright spot for UTEP was ballyhooed recruit Deion Hankins broke out at RB. He had 17-113-2. At WR Jacob Cowing had 7-116 rec. So, they have some splash

guys who can do more this year. While Texas' defense is no great shakes, this is a massive step up in class, and it's one where I don't think they are gonna answer the bell. Implied score is 51-7. Past few years, we've seen Horns go 56-0, 28-21, 45-14, and 48-13 against G5s.

When UTEP has gone up: 56-7, 63-16, 24-0, 38-3. The first two drubbings pre-dated Dimel's tenure and the more palatable 24 and 35 point losses were his at Tennessee and Texas tech in the past two years. He may have some Cutcliffe in him where he tries to minimize the maul.

Texas will be able to do whatever they want on offense and they play into a bye week, so I'll be curious to see how much bloodlust Herman has. He needs to get the revamped WR room some good reps and see exactly what he's got there. I took a small bet on U61. I'll go 51-6 Horns

Houston Baptist @ Texas Tech (-39.5/71) Have taken some stuff here with Antonio but want to wait until broader market releases so I can get paid if it wins instead of book going bankrupt with my bag. Will trey to circle back with thoughts and a play here within 48 hours.

Coastal Carolina @ Kansas (-6.5/56) Last year, Coastal Carolina had some great at bats late before the grand slam in the 8th inning which got them their 12-7 win over Kansas. I'll be brief on this one. Playing the @BradPowers7 practice angle on CC +7. They are only team in CFB

that got all 15 spring practices in. Kansas didn't get a single one in. I could fluff up more words, but it was that simple for me. I think it was a legit theoretical angle and while the sample is still small, we are seeing it being proven. See Navy for when a team messes around

instead of practices real football. I think the MOV for CC will remain the same, but it will be higher scoring than last year. 13-8 Chanticleers.

That will conclude the weekly program. Vacation next week, so prob will have the shortest thread all year, will try to at least touch on a few games that I have an opinion on. Hopefully, can post some more props in the thread later tonight and Saturday. Have a great rest of week!