Read on Twitter
People are confusing a bounce back with "recovery". As we've learned more about the pandemic, we've opened up parts of the economy (like outdoor dining).
1/
1/
The hardest hit sector - leisure and hospitality - lost 8.3 million jobs in March and April. Leisure and hospitality added another 174 thousand jobs in August, following 4 million jobs added in May, June and July. So about 50% of those jobs were added back.
2/
2/
Unfortunately - through trial and error - some parts of the economy reopened too soon (like bars). This led to 30,000 COVID deaths in August.
3/
3/
There will be long term damage to the economy that will be slow to recover even after a vaccine is available. This includes commercial real estates (offices, retail, hotels), and probably some travel related and event industries.
4/
4/
Calling people back from layoffs is easy. Finding new jobs for permanent job losses will take time. That is why this graph is so important. In August, the number of permanent job losers increased sharply to 3.411 million from 2.877 million in July.
5/
5/
And there is no "V" shaped recovery. This graph shows the bounce back, but at some point the recovery will slow.
The key for policy makers will be to stay focused on the unemployed after the vaccine is available.
6/
The key for policy makers will be to stay focused on the unemployed after the vaccine is available.
6/
Another key is don't reopen too quickly - and try to build a recovery on the dead and injured. Death isn't the only negative consequence from the virus, see this article on heart problems with college athletes.
https://www.si.com/college/2020/08/09/ncaa-cardiac-inflamation-coronavirus-myocarditis-concerns
7/
https://www.si.com/college/2020/08/09/ncaa-cardiac-inflamation-coronavirus-myocarditis-concerns
7/
Remember - in June the number of positive results per day dropped to about 20,000 on a seven day average. It is currently around 40,000 per day (and falling). This means there is a large reservoir of the virus spreading in the community. so everyone needs to stay vigilant.
