And by the way, can Orbán really block the deal? No. No way. Not unless his longtime @EPP enablers and new pals like Portuguese PM Costa let him. Quick https://twitter.com/daniel_freund/status/1301149027074019328

It is all about sequencing and linkage. During the #MFF / recovery deal talks he could block rule of law conditionality because unanimity was required. I explained it here: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/30/europes-faustian-union/

But the @EU_Commission rule of law conditionality proposal can be adopted under ordinary legislative procedure with qualified majority voting, so Orban’s (& Kaczynski’s) opposition can be overcome. Once that is a fait accompli, the can finalize budget/ recovery package

If the rule of law conditionality is already a done deal, he won’t veto budget package that could send money to Hungary. He’ll just try other techniques to fight off the suspension of the funds his regime steals.

Right now he is just bluffing/ trying to confuse matters re sequencing. Saying he will later block funding deal if rule of law conditionality isn’t gutted now. No one should believe him. Fortunately smart people in @Europarl_EN like @daniel_freund see through his lies

The danger is that his normal enablers like @ManfredWeber & @EPPGroup (who are now pretending to care about rule of law) may use this as excuse to cave in and gut @EU_Commission rule of law conditionality proposal. Also...

New wrinkle is that Orbán seems to have convinced some govs who desperate for recovery funds - like Portugal’s Costa- that they should block rule of law conditionality to help speed things up. Also I think he is offering them a quid pro quo:

If they help block rule of law conditionality, he’ll help weaken any economic reform conditionality attaches to the recovery funds. This is a big test for the EU...

Will it keep funding autocrats who flout its core values and undermine the Union from within? Will it let the authoritarian rot spread? Or will it finally take a stand?

For background on how we got here, see my pinned tweet/thread and linked article. END . https://twitter.com/rdanielkelemen/status/1232905711182544896