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President Tsai announces Taiwan will allow pork imports from pigs fed ractopamine, a lean-muscle additive that's used in 90+% of US ag. This is a big deal on several levels. 1/x https://twitter.com/Focus_Taiwan/status/1299377325457375232
1st, the political motive here is to overcome a major, longstanding hurdle in US-Taiwan trade talks.
US ag interests are a key sticking point for negotiating an FTA. Taiwan for a long time had a ban on US beef and pork imports. US position is: no imports, no negotiations. 2/x
US ag interests are a key sticking point for negotiating an FTA. Taiwan for a long time had a ban on US beef and pork imports. US position is: no imports, no negotiations. 2/x
The Ma administration also ran into this problem. Ma tried to lift the ban in 2012 by allowing trace residues of ractopamine in meat, and got huge blowback from the legislature and public opinion: https://www.economist.com/banyan/2012/03/08/gored
The DPP made political hay over this. But it wasn't only DPP legislators. PFP, TSU, and even some KMT legislators criticized Ma for the move: https://www.scmp.com/article/994686/taiwan-temporarily-lifts-ban-us-beef-imports
Nevertheless, in July 2012, Ma got the LY to pass amendments to the Food Sanitation Act allowing beef imports (but not pork!) with ractopamine. The KMT caucus backed this, reluctantly. DPP, TSU, and PFP voted against. http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2012/07/26/2003538652
Beef imports then grew rapidly, making US trade negotiators happy. https://www.beefmagazine.com/exports/following-record-breaking-year-taiwan-s-demand-us-beef-still-sizzling
But there was still the pork issue, and on that, domestic opposition meant Ma couldn't budge. (Taiwan produces much more pork than beef domestically.)
And the US side still insisted: no FTA without allowing pork imports. https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/201803010008
And the US side still insisted: no FTA without allowing pork imports. https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/201803010008
So, Tsai has stuck her neck out to resolve this impasse over trade talks with the US. Allowing ractopamine in imported pork is a major political risk for her, opening her to cross-party (DPP too!) attacks over:
1. Health concerns
2. Competition with TW pork farmers
1. Health concerns
2. Competition with TW pork farmers
(1) in my view is a distraction. TW already allows ractopamine-fed beef imports. US pork (like beef) will be labeled, and there's no evidence the additive is unsafe. The US side said TW's objections were not based on science. I think that's right.
(2) is where Tsai is really vulnerable. Pork, unlike beef, is widely produced domestically. Tsai is lifting a trade barrier to competition with an important, politically sensitive industry. Here's what happened when Ma proposed that just for beef: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2012/03/09/2003527330
Now it'll be a DPP administration they're furious with. Think the KMT won't try to exploit that anger? They're near an all-time low in the polls. This gives them an opening to try the same appeals the DPP did in 2012: http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2012/03/22/2003528404
So that's the politics behind this move: Tsai has decided to accept the inevitable criticism that lifting the ban will trigger, in return for forward progress on an FTA with the US.
She's attempting the same thing Ma tried to do and could never pull off. Bold, and risky.
She's attempting the same thing Ma tried to do and could never pull off. Bold, and risky.
Now, on another level, the legal process here is interesting. Beef and pork became an issue when the KMT-led LY banned some imports, undercutting a memorandum that the Ma admin had signed with the US in Oct 2009: https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/getting-beyond-beef-in-u-s-taiwan-relations/
Since this was an act of the legislature, it couldn't be overturned by executive action. Ma was stuck. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2010/01/06/2003462809
It turns out the big switch here occurred in 2012, after the UN food standards body, Codex Alimentarus Commission, narrowly voted to approve maximum standards for ractopamine residues in pigs and cattle.
http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/150953/icode/
http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/150953/icode/
The Ma administration then quickly moved to get the LY to lift the ban on US beef imports, because they were now in line with UN standards. The KMT caucus then went along and the necessary changes to the Food Sanitation Act were passed: https://taiwantoday.tw/news.php?unit=2&post=2518
Now, what about pork? The Tsai administration is asserting that the Council of Agriculture has the statutory authority to set standards for ractopamine in imported pork. I.e. no legislative action is required to make this change:
So in order to block this move, the legislature would have to pass a new bill, like they did in 2009-10 against beef imports.
The DPP controls a majority there and Tsai is party chair, so we'd expect this not to happen. But it DID happen to Ma!
The DPP controls a majority there and Tsai is party chair, so we'd expect this not to happen. But it DID happen to Ma!
IOW, this will be an interesting test of Tsai vs Ma: similar situation, similar politics, except the parties are in opposite positions.
We're going to learn something here about whether Tsai can avoid Ma's 2nd term fate: https://taiwaninsight.org/2020/06/23/can-tsai-ing-wen-avoid-the-second-term-curse/
We're going to learn something here about whether Tsai can avoid Ma's 2nd term fate: https://taiwaninsight.org/2020/06/23/can-tsai-ing-wen-avoid-the-second-term-curse/
Finally, this also says something about US-Taiwan-PRC relations. Tsai is trying to rebalance Taiwan's economy away from over-dependence on the PRC. The US is looking for ways to shore up support for Taiwan in face of PRC pressure.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership was supposed to offer that possibility, and it was the reason Ma tried to resolve the pork/beef impasse.
But now US participation in the TPP is a distant memory. The alternative is through a bilateral US-Taiwan FTA: https://www.csis.org/analysis/now-right-time-trade-agreement-taiwan
But now US participation in the TPP is a distant memory. The alternative is through a bilateral US-Taiwan FTA: https://www.csis.org/analysis/now-right-time-trade-agreement-taiwan
The pork and beef issues have been stumbling blocks for so long that FTA discussions have never gotten started.
If Tsai is able to pull this off, they just might. And at this moment of US-PRC trade conflict, that opens up a lot of possibilities for Taiwan to reap benefits.
If Tsai is able to pull this off, they just might. And at this moment of US-PRC trade conflict, that opens up a lot of possibilities for Taiwan to reap benefits.
For instance, see this report by @DAlexBlumenthal and @mike_mazza:
https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/US_TW_Trade_Blumenthal_Mazza_P2049_021419.pdf
https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/US_TW_Trade_Blumenthal_Mazza_P2049_021419.pdf
The tweets of praise for Tsai coming from high-level people in US govt and Congress should give an idea of how much Taiwan stands to gain by this move. E.g.: https://twitter.com/State_E/status/1299364880131207168?s=20
Relevant to this thread: Lighthizer at USTR is a major obstacle to a US-Taiwan BTA: https://twitter.com/AnaSwanson/status/1313455683430428672?s=20
The Council of Agriculture is going full-speed ahead w/ plan to brand Taiwan pork, under assumption they'll be competing with US imports next year: https://twitter.com/Focus_Taiwan/status/1313615016558383104?s=20
Also, Taiwan pork can now be exported again after a 24-year hiatus. In June the OIE certified Taiwan was foot-and-mouth disease free. Another reason why lifting the US pork ban may not actually be so serious a threat to domestic producers: https://taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/06/18/2003738425
Updates (11.2020) to this thread. First, the KMT has gone all-in on opposition to US pork imports.
In Sept, they occupied the Legislative Yuan podium: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2020/09/23/2003743924
In Sept, they occupied the Legislative Yuan podium: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2020/09/23/2003743924
After the podium blockade, the DPP then conceded to a formal LY review (備查 -> 審查) of the Tsai administration's executive orders to permit pork imports containing ractopamine. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2020/09/26/2003744100
The review of exec orders originally went to various LY committees. After failure to act, the review has now been kicked into the cross-party negotiation mechanism (政黨協商), where every party caucus has 2 reps and a consensus must be unanimous: https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202011120013
Under PNM rules, if there's no cross-party consensus after 1 month, the speaker can bring the orders up for a floor vote, which would happen sometime in December.
B/c the DPP has a majority, it can then approve the orders without agreement from the other caucuses.
B/c the DPP has a majority, it can then approve the orders without agreement from the other caucuses.
But, this procedure will probably require DPP members to take a tough vote, on the record, in favor of Tsai admin executive orders.
The DPP caucus is going to be whipped to vote yes, & so far it's stayed unified behind Tsai. So it'll probably pass: https://taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2020/10/28/2003745931
The DPP caucus is going to be whipped to vote yes, & so far it's stayed unified behind Tsai. So it'll probably pass: https://taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2020/10/28/2003745931
The KMT has also gathered signatures for a referendum on the pork issue, & submitted these in September.
Due to changes the DPP passed last year, this referendum can't be held until August 2021 at earliest. So after the new policy goes into effect: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2020/09/24/2003743985
Due to changes the DPP passed last year, this referendum can't be held until August 2021 at earliest. So after the new policy goes into effect: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2020/09/24/2003743985
The Central Election Commission recently held a hearing about whether the proposed referendum meets the requirements of the law.
It looks likely to qualify, so at some point the pork imports question will be presented to Taiwan voters: https://taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2020/11/07/2003746526
It looks likely to qualify, so at some point the pork imports question will be presented to Taiwan voters: https://taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2020/11/07/2003746526
More updates on the pork issue (2020.12.20+): vote in LY to uphold Tsai admin's executive orders now set for this coming Thursday, December 24: https://taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2020/12/21/2003749114
This will be a high-profile vote, and a tough one for DPP legislators. KMT is planning a rally outside the LY, complete with big screen, to focus attention on it: https://taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2020/12/20/2003749056
