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One of the more interesting military developments of the past few decades is the American pursuit of increasingly sophisticated and more potent nuclear capabilities in parallel with increasingly dense missile defenses. 1/15 https://www.defensenews.com/smr/federal-budget/2020/02/11/mdas-fy21-budget-paves-way-for-new-homeland-missile-defense-plans/
Withdrawing from the ABM Treaty and the development of interceptors, was sold as a defense against nuclear blackmail from rogue states like the DPRK. However, the extent of the layered homeland defense plan indicates greater ambitions. 2/15 https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/2020/08/18/missile-defense-agency-director-lays-out-hurdles-in-path-to-layered-homeland-missile-defense/
US missile defense capabilities exceed what would be required to defend against the modest arsenal of the DPRK, which may not even have an effective delivery system yet or particularly powerful warheads. The US seems to be aiming to be able to absorb a second strike. 3/15
North Korea could be decapitated easily and thus poses no second strike threat. Iran has no nukes at all. So, it's pretty easy to conclude US ABM efforts are aimed at Russia and China. Especially, given that ABM systems are deployed in rings around those states. 4/15
The ongoing trillion dollar overhaul of the US nuclear arsenal paired with the expansion of ABM capabilities indicates an aggressive nuclear posture. The US isn't just doing maintenance and ensuring safety. It is adding revolutionary capabilities. 5/15 https://thebulletin.org/2017/03/how-us-nuclear-force-modernization-is-undermining-strategic-stability-the-burst-height-compensating-super-fuze/#
The recent super fuse added to the Trident II SLBM vastly increased the potency of US nuclear forces. This upgrade alone enhanced the killing power of the nuclear arsenal by a factor of 3. We went from 20% of submarine warheads having hard kill capability to 100% having it. 6/15
The new fuse on Trident warheads means 1 warhead has the same statistical probability of success that previously would have taken 3 warheads. This is a massive shift in the strategic situation. Now that all 100kt W76 warheads qualify for use against the hardest silos... 7/15
Higher yield US warheads like the 475kt W88 are freed up to be used in the most demanding missions against deeply buried command and control centers. 8/15
The strategic implications are enormous. The US has the capability to destroy the entirety of Russia's silo based nuclear forces with only 21% of its arsenal. This means the US can target 100s of non-hardened targets. 9/15
A mere 125 Minuteman IIIs could set fire to the 8000 square mile area in which Russian road-mobile nukes are likely to be deployed and destroy them all. This puts a great deal of pressure on Russia's submarine based forces to maintain minimum deterrence. 10/15
Now, after this hypothetical American first strike this is where ABM comes into play. It's reasonable to assume that close to 100% of Russian land based nuclear forces would be destroyed in a first strike. Some SSBNs would be destroyed in port as well... 11/15
This leaves the Russian SSBNs that happen to be on patrol responsible for a retaliatory second strike. The US has been very keen on developing the capability to slip into Russian bastions in the White and Okhotsk Seas and destroy these SSBNs. 12/15
However, failing that the multi-layered ABM systems being developed and deployed will be used to absorb whatever nukes can be sent in a second strike. This is the impetus of the modernization of Russian nuclear forces. 13/15
The rationale behind a weapon system like the Poseidon Nuclear Torpedo becomes pretty clear in this context. Poseidon is a deterrence weapon of last resort. 14/15
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status-6_Oceanic_Multipurpose_System
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status-6_Oceanic_Multipurpose_System
The belligerent posture of the US also explains the development of the RS-28 Sarmat ICBM, the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle and the 9M730 Burevestnik nuclear powered cruise missile. As well as the development of the intermediate range 9M729 and RS-26 Rubezh. 15/15
