Finding a Casemiro backup and replacement: Data Analysis [THREAD]

This season, Casemiro was the only defensive midfielder available for Zidane and he had to rely on him for every game. Fede Valverde was on occasions used as a replacement but the difference in quality was staggering.

In this piece, we will try to find some potential players who can play as backups for Casemiro and replace the Brazilian without a major setback in quality.

First, let’s take a look at Casemiro’s statistical profile to see how he ranks up against some of his compatriots.

The Brazilian excels at the defensive phase of the game, as highlighted by his defensive duels and aerial ability. He is still not proficient with the ball at his feet, as highlighted by his progressive passes and progressive distance carried numbers. His long passing is vital.

- Criteria

U-23 Midfielders from the Top 5 European Leagues who have played at least 900 minutes will be considered.
The criteria is set because younger players can agree to a bench role and the 900 minute base is to get rid of outliers without punishing Ligue 1 players.

We will be looking at following aspects to get our shortlist.
- Defensive Contribution.
- Aerial Ability.
- Ball Security.
- Ball Progression.

Defensive Contribution is the most important area of Casemiro’s game and hence this will carry the most value. First, we will take a look at the players who excel at Possession Adjusted Tackles and Possession Adjusted Interceptions.

Ndidi, Laimer, Bennacer, Samassekou shine here.

Now, we will take a look at how these players apply pressures with a special focus on the middle of the park.

Laimer is a pressing machine. Lage, Cucurella, Ndidi look good too.

The fouls players commit in deeper areas could come out to be dangerous, especially when it is a regular occurrence. Let’s take a look at how these players deal with dribblers and fouls they commit.

Casemiro is a high-volume defender and it is shown by his high number of tackles and fouls.
Zaydou Youssouf, Sean Longstaff, Joe Moncayola, Sarr and Laimer are the standouts here.

Now, taking a look at the aerial ability. This graph is important to notice the volume of duels.

Now just to take a look at the duels won we should use the aerial duel success rate.

Sidy Sarr is an outlier here, although his numbers could be inflated by playing just 1100 minutes. Mikel Merino, Philip Billing, Marko Grujic, Sander Berge and Rodri also perform really well.

Now, let's take a look at the ball security.
Net Possession: Balls won - Balls lost.
Casemiro does not excel at his ability with the ball but he is still very capable in terms of shielding the ball. Looking at the graphic Rodri, Laimer, Ndidi, Camavinga show up well here.

Although progressive passing is not a need for succeeding Casemiro, Real Madrid may decide to take a different approach for the future, hence the ability on the ball will also be considered.

Rodri, Fabian Ruiz, Locatelli, Guendouzi, Soumare and Marc Roca impress along others.

Now, let’s take a look at the total progression these players provide.

Again, players with more on-the ball responsibilities like Frenkie de Jong, Ceballos and Guendouzi shine. The likes of Rodri, Locatelli and Bennacer also show up well here.

Finally, taking a look at long passing ability. Zidane’s team uses Casemiro to switch the play and initiate threatening attacks very often, which is why he shows up very well here. Rodri, Weigl, Neves, Unai Lopez, Ceballos and Fabian Ruiz show up very well here.

We have reached a five man shortlist that is divided into three sections.
- Similar Profiles (First two Players)
- A New Approach (Two Players)
- Planning for The Future (One Player)

- Wilfred Ndidi (Similar Profile)

In terms of a profile, Ndidi is the closest it comes to Casemiro. Like Casemiro, he struggles at progressing the ball, however, his defensive contribution more than makes up for it.

His long passing – or the lack of, is concerning in that role. Although Ndidi fits the mould of Casemiro perfectly, there won’t be much of an interest for him in leaving Leicester City in order to become a second choice in Madrid.

- Ismael Bennacer (Similar Profile)

Bennacer is more comfortable on the ball than both Casemiro and Ndidi, however, his aerial ability will be a big question mark. Not only is Bennacer adept at progressing the ball, he is also very capable of getting the ball out of tight areas.

Bennacer’s defensive stats are very solid. This part of the game shows how he can actually be a very clever signing for the Los Blancos. Not only can Bennacer help in providing cover for Casemiro, he can also potentially play alongside him with more freedom to roam forward.

- Konrad Laimer (A New Approach)

Although Laimer has played the role of a deep-lying midfielder for Nagelsmann, he is at his best when he is able to roam freely in a midfield.
It would be appropriate to use him in a pivot so that you can get the most out of his mobile nature.

Laimer is very capable with the ball at his feet and although his long passing needs improvement, he is extremely press resistant. His defensive and pressing stats are also very encouraging, although he lacks the aerial ability.

- Manuel Locatelli (A New Approach)

Here’s another unconventional shout. Locatelli has had a great season at Sassuolo and he is a very well rounded player. Again, he is not a direct replacement for Casemiro, but he gives something more than that.

- Camavinga (Planning for the future)

Looking at Camavinga’s statistical profile, you can see that he is not a finished article. Far from it. However, he has some special abilities for a player of his age. He is already being deemed as the successor to Casemiro

There’s a reason why the teenager is already in demand by the biggest clubs in Europe.There are a lot of question marks over his future. But if he manages to maximize the potential he shows, we will have a truly generation talent (for the lack of a better word) develop.

All the data has been taken from FBRef.

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