Couple of quick thoughts, @pstanpolitics a) China has offered shelter to various NE insurgents for some time, w/o letting them operate kinetically. b) P. Baruah is one, but H Tangkhul, T R Calvin, and some other N-IM cadre still operate from Yunnan 1/n https://twitter.com/pstanpolitics/status/1296982892934029313

c) There has been an (expected) uptick in violence in Manipur recently, & acc. to some Indian officials there is indeed a "link to China". But, it is unclear whether this link is to Beijing, or to the illegal arms bazaar wherefrom Chinese-made weapons can easily be bought. 2/n

d) R&AW & MSS have been playing hide-&-seek on Baruah/Calvin/Tangkhul (among others) for long. N. Delhi has been worried about Beijing's potential re-activation of these groups; & the E. Ladakh crisis has *seemingly* given a good reason to Beijing (explains timing?). 3/n

e) But just like India's so-called "Tibet card" is over-hyped, so is China's support to these groups. Beijing will find it v. difficult to strategically overhaul NE's security situation to India's detriment, even if there is rise in attacks like the one seen in Manipur. Why? 4/n

f) The pol. ideas/methods of ULFA/N-IM have ltd. public uptake in Assam & Nagaland/Arunachal/Manipur respectively. Even Meitei groups (KYKL etc.) are allegedly "in-bed" w/ mainstream Indian pol. parties (blunting their lethal potential) & numerically inferior. 5/n

g) So, neither is it clear that Beijing is truly behind these groups in earnest (possible, but many of these groups might be trying their luck given the larger geopolitical sit. in the region, & N-IM's troubles with N. Ravi), nor can China get much out of it if its involved. 6/n

h) But, if Beijing is indeed trying to exert pressure on India via ULFA/N-IM & other NE groups, then, at best, it is a case of what a wise-person once told me: "covert deterrence" i.e. w/ v. ltd. objectives. :)

i) I have found it v. interesting how Indian media often conflates Chinese-made weapons w/ China. The illicit networks/routes are so complex that even process tracing, (least of tracing casualty) is v. difficult.

j) This is one of the most detailed recent @IrrawaddyNews report I read on who the weapons smuggled into Myanmar recently were meant for (not AA?). But even this has so many unanswered questions. https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/analysis/weapons-seized-mae-sot-destined-myanmars-rakhine-state-intelligence-sources.html/amp