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1/ Following on from @CredibleCrypto's excellent video, I decided to put together a simplified probabilistic decision model on how one might trade the next move on it. https://twitter.com/CredibleCrypto/status/1297087536301408256?s=20
2/ Bitcoin is repeating the 3 move structure that led to breakout above £10k. Expect some form of complex yellow wiggly down line, then explosive to £14k+ #Bitcoin 
3/ That yellow wiggly line could take 1 of 2 paths (simplified). Either bounce at $11.1k support or $10.5k support. Let's not rule out a complete nuke down to the prior range (sub-$10k), or nuke straight up (above-$12.3k). Estimated probabilities of paths shown.
4/ From this simplified diagram we could propose 3 trading strategies.
- 1. Jump in now (11.6k)
- 2. Aim for support at 11.1k (but if you miss, prepare to buy higher (12.3k)
- 3 Aim for support at 10.5k. Again if you miss, the penalty is buying higher (12.3k)
- 1. Jump in now (11.6k)
- 2. Aim for support at 11.1k (but if you miss, prepare to buy higher (12.3k)
- 3 Aim for support at 10.5k. Again if you miss, the penalty is buying higher (12.3k)
5/ Feeding the strategies and probabilities into a decision tree you get the following results.
It might pay to try get in a little lower, but don't get too greedy! The return is good no matter when you get in right now.
It might pay to try get in a little lower, but don't get too greedy! The return is good no matter when you get in right now.
6/ The model is obviously super-simplified but it helps understand the magnitude of the R:R ratios. For instance, if we shift the probabilities more bullishly, the model says "don't waste your time, just get in now".
