#CapeIndependence thread.

If you argue that Cape independence (CI) is going to be extremely difficult politically & frustrated by Constitutional & international legal norms, you're not actually arguing with anyone. No one who thinks seriously about CI disagrees with this.

If you think serious CI advocates think it will be easy, you're arguing against a straw man. CI is speculative politics that recognises that nascent/emergent political ideas can not only reshape the Overton landscape, but can dramatically shift incentives among leadership elites.

As a new political idea takes root, it can acquire a life of its own, drawing in new coalition partners as political preference maps are redrawn. This is precisely why analysts are bad at seeing emergent volitional politics. New orders seldom fit existing analytical models.

So, if you're here to say that CI will be blocked by the president or parliament or will be extremely difficult to pull off politically under the current paradigm, you aren't actually adding value. These points are painfully obvious.

There are far more decisive questions.

Can an overwhelming, vociferous, & committed enough pro-CI coalition form & hold together? This is THE primary challenge. And to be blunt, this requires a big upwelling in Cape nationalism/survivalism among the coloured community. Without this at *minimum*, CI doesn't happen.

Beyond significant coloured secessionism, Kaapenaars must overwhelmingly be willing to sever (in principle) many strong ties with the rest of SA. This is a tough one, though made ever less difficult by the rank failure of non-Cape SA - becomes a survivalist issue.

Bottom line is, forging & maintaining a cohesive, committed, insistent, dog-with-a-bone majority pro-CI coalition that is well led (& funded) is the first & probably most difficult goal. This is why phase 1 is developing a VISION of CI, establishing its viability & desirability.

Phase 1 is coalition building, growing a popular movement, and seeing if the spark ignites - if the seed 'takes'. CI has to capture the imagination. It has to invoke desire for security, community survival, a viable country, political creativity. This builds up a momentum.

It's that building momentum around a compelling vision that crowds in further political, logistical, financial and even legal viability. It's that momentum that creates political leverage. This is how nascent politics becomes 'the art of the possible'.

You may regard the potential for creating such a coalition as too weak, and that is fair enough. I think it's an extremely challenging task. But it has some tailwinds. The almost certain failure of the SA state and all that entails + the strides in CI consciousness made so far.

There are other factors, but they're hardly worth addressing until we know there is a real, committed, majority coalition for Cape secession. How quickly & widely the vision germinates in grassroots Cape communities in the coming 18 months will tell us a lot about our future. END