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In Uni admissions land it certainly has been an interesting 10 days. For what its worth here's my thoughts on the longer term consequences of the A-Level algo-shambles & the U-turn on student number cap. 1/n
We've all seen how some 'high tariff' Unis are now fit to burst. Some of those over subscribed universities are asking students to defer entry to next year. Which means there will be fewer places available in the HE sector for students who complete their A-levels next year. 2/n
AND, since next year's lot actually have to sit exams, they are likely to have lower grades. So they will be less competitive & have fewer options available to them. 3/n
What's really frustrating is that, in 20/21, there's more than enough capacity in the UK HE sector. So everyone who wants to go to Uni, and has the grades, could easily find a place. But the distribution of students across the sector has been completely warped. 4/n
This means some Unis are left with many fewer students than they had planned for. As a consequence "It's entirely possible, & even likely, that we will see several universities become bankrupt in the next 12 months" 5/n https://www.wired.co.uk/article/university-places-clearing-acceptance
Then, next year the international students will be coming back to the UK. 6/n
Which leads me to my prediction: Next year we'll have much higher demand for places at Uni; this year's cohort who have deferred + next year's A-level finalists & international students. 7/n
Meanwhile, the sector's capacity to offer places will be reduced due HE institutions going under. And who is going to suffer? Next year's A-level students, and particularly those from less privileged backgrounds. 8/8
