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Biggest bubble here is $AAPL. Walmart has P/S of 0.8x since no growth, it actually has potential from online+ acquisitions like Phonepe.
AAPL has P/S of 8x with 0% growth. To be fair value, it would need revenue of $2 trillion, almost 10% US GDP, lol. https://twitter.com/prathgodbole/status/1296821184034734081
AAPL has P/S of 8x with 0% growth. To be fair value, it would need revenue of $2 trillion, almost 10% US GDP, lol. https://twitter.com/prathgodbole/status/1296821184034734081
if the collective valuations of a sector imply a future revenue that is far in excess of the addressable market for that sector, or even adjacent sectors, you know you're in a bubble. Not something you want to short, its much easier to buy. But don't overstay the end of the trend
liquidity is like a tsunami- it wrecks whatever it hits. But every time it hits something, it loses some strength. One of the 3 always bears the most impact- rates, equities or the currency. If one of them is fixed, eg- fx peg, it'll flood into the other 2.
otoh, if the fx is not pegged, but in fact appreciates, the bubble is magnified. In 1985 after the Plaza accord, the USD was agreed to be devalued over time vs JPY. Fed started rate cuts, resulted in the gigantic Jap bubble of 89 from which JP is yet to recover.
something similar happened 00-07. Fed cut rates to 0, money flooded into china, and CNY was also appreciating. Chinese equities went up 6x between 05-07.
Present day, the impact will likely be most on DXY, already down 5%, will drop a lot more in years to come
Present day, the impact will likely be most on DXY, already down 5%, will drop a lot more in years to come
A lot of dollar bull commentary relies on -there is no alternative.
There doesnt need to be one. We've had long periods of history, lasting hundreds of years where there was no major empire and all the big ones were in chaos. Trade continued. Life went on.
There doesnt need to be one. We've had long periods of history, lasting hundreds of years where there was no major empire and all the big ones were in chaos. Trade continued. Life went on.
