Delhi #COVID19 update.
Looking at cases, Delhi - like Mumbai - is "stuck".
Peak has passed, but there's been no clear descent for the past one month.
Corrected test positivity is anywhere between ~6% and ~20% (depending on how sensitive you believe rapid antigen tests are). 1/4

While Delhi has peaked, the peak looked much sharper than it really was. This was a consequence of increased testing + a switch to rapid antigen tests ( https://thewire.in/health/covid-19-delhi-peak-testing). That confusion is gone now as rapid tests are steady at about 70% of the total. 2/4

This phenomenon of getting "stuck" is not surprising. We are seeing it in many city epidemics. 'R' hovers around 1 for a long period of time. It's consistent with modelling and is described in the section "More realistic scenarios" in this piece... 3/4 https://scroll.in/article/964450/in-charts-how-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end

...Roughly, an epidemic gets stuck when you have "leaky" mitigation. There are 2 competing effects:
1) more and more people have had the disease and are no longer susceptible, but
2) at the same time more and more people are becoming "available" for infection. 4/4