1) Quebecers were justifiably shocked and saddened Friday to learn of the #COVID19 death of a 19-year-old named Béni Kabangu Nsapu. May he rest in peace. In this thread, I will try to explain the implications of Quebec’s first #pandemic fatality of someone under the age of 20.
2) What’s especially troubling about Béni’s death is not only that was he so young, but the Repentigny student by all accounts appeared to be in otherwise good health. Notwithstanding the results of an autopsy, we can draw some preliminary conclusions.
3) Please view the pie chart below by the Institut national de santé publique, dated April 15, during the peak of the #pandemic’s first wave. At that point in time, Quebecers up to the age of 29 comprised 17.5% of all cases. Since then, that percentage has surged by 5.6%.
4) Notice how on April 15, there were zero cases among two demographics: 0 to 9 as well as 10 to 19 years of age. Contrast those figures with today’s INSPQ pie chart below. The 0-9 group makes up 3.3% of all cases, or 2,023 children who have contracted #COVID19.
5) Some of those children caught the #coronavirus in the schools that reopened briefly off the island of Montreal in May. Some got infected at day camps. How many more cases can we expect from this age group when schools reopen in less than two weeks?
6) The next age group is Béni’s, 10-19. On April 15, there were no cases. Since then, that percentage has climbed to 5.4 per cent, or 3,320 pre-teens and high school students. Again, how many more cases can we expect from this demographic when schools reopen?
7) The data suggest that perhaps Quebec should opt for an even more prudent approach in its school reopening plan, following Ontario’s lead in requiring that students from Grade 4 and up wear face coverings in class. For what it’s worth, my children want to wear masks in class.
9) Meanwhile, Montreal posted 32 #COVID19 cases Friday, up from 23 the day before. Please see the orange line in the chart below, which demonstrates that although Quebec’s alcohol-fueled resurgence is over, it could ramp back up if people lower their guard.
10) Finally, the metropolis declared one #COVID19 on Friday, raising its death toll to 3,465. Béni, who lived in Repentigny, is not part of that grim tally. But may his name be forever remembered. May his death not be in vain. End of thread. Stay safe, everyone.
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