Thread by @FplMariner, Extracting Early Value from Midfield v Fixture Diff.8 Million to premiums.Depending on [...]

FplMariner

Extracting Early Value from Midfield v Fixture Diff.
8 Million to premiums.

Depending on your structure you may well have a spot which could become Mane (12m) to be downgraded or Ziyech (8m) to be upgraded once Man C and Man U assets start from GW2 #FPL

How do i do it? well without @BenCrellin 's FDR i wouldnt...

The calc

is, Pts/Mins 2019/20, extrapolated to 38 games (3420mins), less Post lockdown Rotation percent and then Fixture difficulty factored in to form cummulative expected pts over GW1-5

so lets go hunting

Ziyech is a good place to start & to explain the sheets

Ppm 24
Projected Pts 192
Rotation Risk 24% (based on 2019/20)
Decent FDR by difference (# home team - # away)

Bedding in risk excepted... may return 29pts GW 1-5

Willian

ARS (23.5 pts) Nor Pogba

MUN (19.3 gw2-5) dont fare quite so well.. but for a punt at 8m Willian might be of interest especially if you already have Werner

and dont fancy double Chelsea.

the charity shield ....

moving to 8.5's

Willian ARS (23.5 pts) Nor Pogba MUN (19.3 gw2-5) dont fare quite so well.. but for a punt at 8m Willian might be of interest especially if you already have Werner and dont fancy double Chelsea. the charity shield ....moving to 8.5's

Pulisic

if not

with the same favourable FDR looks to return more points but at the same Ppm.

Mahrez

even with his 38% rotation and missing GW1 becomes more of an option when you factor in FDR and might prove a decent differential.

Pogba looks

Next 9.0

Pulisic if not with the same favourable FDR looks to return more points but at the same Ppm. Mahrez even with his 38% rotation and missing GW1 becomes more of an option when you factor in FDR and might prove a decent differential.Pogba looks Next 9.0

Adding the only 9.0 option, Son (TOT)

unsurpringly he tops the pile (but less value than a fit Pulisic at 0.5m less)

Spurs fixtures are enticing but i'm not sure i trust Jose to attack enough....

8% Rotation is

Lets continue to a 9.5m Rashford (MUN) now mid..

Adding the only 9.0 option, Son (TOT) unsurpringly he tops the pile (but less value than a fit Pulisic at 0.5m less) Spurs fixtures are enticing but i'm not sure i trust Jose to attack enough.... 8% Rotation is Lets continue to a 9.5m Rashford (MUN) now mid..

As this is the first look at a Man U asset i will break this down a little.

Fixtures

GW1 -
GW2 CRY FDR +4 (Man U 2 v cry 6)
GW3 bha +2
GW4 TOT -1
GW5 new +2

Fixtures look

for both Cl Sheets and Xg

So Marcus..

Rashford looks excellent value 30.6 pts gw 2-5 but two points behind Son (if you trust Jose) Rotation 3%

Firmino is

given last seasons horror show