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Extracting Early Value from Midfield v Fixture Diff.
8 Million to premiums.
Depending on your structure you may well have a spot which could become Mane (12m) to be downgraded or Ziyech (8m) to be upgraded once Man C and Man U assets start from GW2 #FPL
8 Million to premiums.
Depending on your structure you may well have a spot which could become Mane (12m) to be downgraded or Ziyech (8m) to be upgraded once Man C and Man U assets start from GW2 #FPL
How do i do it? well without @BenCrellin 's FDR i wouldnt...
The calc
is, Pts/Mins 2019/20, extrapolated to 38 games (3420mins), less Post lockdown Rotation percent and then Fixture difficulty factored in to form cummulative expected pts over GW1-5
so lets go hunting
The calc
is, Pts/Mins 2019/20, extrapolated to 38 games (3420mins), less Post lockdown Rotation percent and then Fixture difficulty factored in to form cummulative expected pts over GW1-5so lets go hunting
Ziyech is a good place to start & to explain the sheets
Ppm 24
Projected Pts 192
Rotation Risk 24% (based on 2019/20)
Decent FDR by difference (# home team - # away)
Bedding in risk excepted... may return 29pts GW 1-5
Ppm 24
Projected Pts 192
Rotation Risk 24% (based on 2019/20)
Decent FDR by difference (# home team - # away)
Bedding in risk excepted... may return 29pts GW 1-5
Willian 
ARS (23.5 pts) Nor Pogba 
MUN (19.3 gw2-5) dont fare quite so well.. but for a punt at 8m Willian might be of interest especially if you already have Werner 
and dont fancy double Chelsea.
the charity shield ....
moving to 8.5's
ARS (23.5 pts) Nor Pogba MUN (19.3 gw2-5) dont fare quite so well.. but for a punt at 8m Willian might be of interest especially if you already have Werner and dont fancy double Chelsea. the charity shield ....moving to 8.5's
Pulisic
if not 
with the same favourable FDR looks to return more points but at the same Ppm.
Mahrez
even with his 38% rotation and missing GW1 becomes more of an option when you factor in FDR and might prove a decent differential.
Pogba looks
Next 9.0
if not with the same favourable FDR looks to return more points but at the same Ppm. Mahrez
even with his 38% rotation and missing GW1 becomes more of an option when you factor in FDR and might prove a decent differential.Pogba looks
Next 9.0
Adding the only 9.0 option, Son (TOT) 
unsurpringly he tops the pile (but less value than a fit Pulisic at 0.5m less)
Spurs fixtures are enticing but i'm not sure i trust Jose to attack enough.... 8% Rotation is
Lets continue to a 9.5m Rashford (MUN) now mid..
unsurpringly he tops the pile (but less value than a fit Pulisic at 0.5m less) Spurs fixtures are enticing but i'm not sure i trust Jose to attack enough.... 8% Rotation is Lets continue to a 9.5m Rashford (MUN) now mid..
As this is the first look at a Man U asset i will break this down a little.
Fixtures
GW1 -
GW2 CRY FDR +4 (Man U 2 v cry 6)
GW3 bha +2
GW4 TOT -1
GW5 new +2
Fixtures look for both Cl Sheets and Xg
So Marcus..
Fixtures
GW1 -
GW2 CRY FDR +4 (Man U 2 v cry 6)
GW3 bha +2
GW4 TOT -1
GW5 new +2
Fixtures look
for both Cl Sheets and XgSo Marcus..
Rashford looks excellent value 30.6 pts gw 2-5 but two points behind Son (if you trust Jose) Rotation 3%
Firmino is given last seasons horror show
Firmino is
given last seasons horror show
And now for the main event Man U fans .. i present Mr Bruno Fernandes 
At 10.5 with my metrics (ROT 6%) he obliterates everyone, decent fixtures, stats, on Pens, whats not to like. GW2 hellooo
Whilst 40 pts seems far fetched, a couple of
he hits 
to the 11.5's.
At 10.5 with my metrics (ROT 6%) he obliterates everyone, decent fixtures,
stats, on Pens, whats not to like. GW2 helloooWhilst 40 pts seems far fetched, a couple of
he hits to the 11.5's.
Surprised to see KDB
is behind Bruno GW2 to 5 but it suggests it.... A pretty tough GW2 Wolves fixture suggests a GW3 entry for Man C. Assets but rotation always 
(KDB 30%)
Now for the 12's #FPL
is behind Bruno GW2 to 5 but it suggests it.... A pretty tough GW2 Wolves fixture suggests a GW3 entry for Man C. Assets but rotation always (KDB 30%)Now for the 12's #FPL
So we add the BIG GUNS...
What does this suggest, well it cements to me that Auba is a hop on hop off asset to start with.
Mane and Salah are both great early options (leeds
)
Sonlooks value *am i now talking myself into this???
Phew to conclude....
What does this suggest, well it cements to me that Auba is a hop on hop off asset to start with.
Mane and Salah are both great early options (leeds
)Son
looks value *am i now talking myself into this??? Phew to conclude....
Is this the FPL Mariners Crew for GW1
Salah, Auba and Mane GW1
Mane -> Bruno GW2
Auba - > KDB GW3
No Son....still don't trust Jose @PlanetFPLPod
No Rashford... Bruno is too good
Possible sacrifice Chelsea
pls do
Q's welcome
Salah, Auba and Mane GW1
Mane -> Bruno GW2
Auba - > KDB GW3
No Son....still don't trust Jose @PlanetFPLPod
No Rashford... Bruno is too good
Possible sacrifice Chelsea
pls do
Q's welcome
Davis would become Brewster if he turns up in the prem
