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COVID-19 cases have been identified in 5% of Berlin’s schools within weeks of opening.
We need to look at reports like this and think about what success looks like in Canada ..../1 https://twitter.com/cbcnews/status/1296884896812666881
COVID-19 cases have been identified in 5% of Berlin’s schools within weeks of opening.
We need to look at reports like this and think about what success looks like in Canada ..../1 https://twitter.com/cbcnews/status/1296884896812666881
If we have cases in the community we’ll have cases in schools. Full stop. If we do things RIGHT and find the cases efficiently, it may even look like more cases in kids, because we’ll be screening for mild symptoms and testing way more. /2
To me, then, success is not “zero cases in schools” because if that’s what we expect we shouldn’t open... if we look for infection with SARS-CoV-2, we find it.
To me- if we are identifying cases at school, it matters less than if we are seeing
1)secondary transmissions
... /3
To me- if we are identifying cases at school, it matters less than if we are seeing
1)secondary transmissions
... /3
OR
2) more hospitalizations in kids because that would suggest more cases not just more recognized cases
It’s probably GOOD if we find the cases, contain spread, maybe cohorts are sometimes quarantined, and schools remain open- I think that’s successful.
/4
2) more hospitalizations in kids because that would suggest more cases not just more recognized cases
It’s probably GOOD if we find the cases, contain spread, maybe cohorts are sometimes quarantined, and schools remain open- I think that’s successful.
/4
We *don’t* expect many kids to get very ill at all.
We don’t want to amplify transmission.
We don’t want to deprive kids of social and developmental and educational enrichment.
We don’t want to put our teachers in harms way.
(If those things happen- new plan needed.)
/5
We don’t want to amplify transmission.
We don’t want to deprive kids of social and developmental and educational enrichment.
We don’t want to put our teachers in harms way.
(If those things happen- new plan needed.)
/5
There really isn’t a zero risk scenario for anyone, but there are reasonable risk scenarios. Part of that will result in finding cases.
We need to resource safe schooling - smaller class sizes, strong cohorting/ and adjust with new knowledge, and test and trace well.
/5
We need to resource safe schooling - smaller class sizes, strong cohorting/ and adjust with new knowledge, and test and trace well.
/5
Serologic data tells us a lot of kids are infected (there’s an age gradient, so from 2-3% up with age towards 6% in older adults in hard hit areas) but most of those infections in kids weren’t counted initially. They weren’t sick enough to be tested with PCR...
/6
/6
But we WILL find these non sick kids more often. How we handle that “news” will be important.
Do we have “zero tolerance” of cases, or do we look for evidence of school amplification?
(My take: schools reflect the community, and should be as safe or safer than the community.)
Do we have “zero tolerance” of cases, or do we look for evidence of school amplification?
(My take: schools reflect the community, and should be as safe or safer than the community.)
(I should say- they should be MADE to be as safe as the community if they are not so.)
