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Orange County, CA-PAY ATTENTION
Many of us have expressed concerns with our county COVID reporting and have doubts that we’ve actually reached the threshold to start the 3 day countdown to be removed from the critical county watch list. Read this tweet &let’s discuss- https://twitter.com/pamelasm/status/1296909179202854912
Per @ochealth :
Case Rate Per 100,000 Pop: The 14-day case rate: The total number of cases diagnosed and reported over a 14-day period divided by the number of people living in the county. This number is then multiplied by 100,000. Due to reporting delay, there is a 3-day lag.
Case Rate Per 100,000 Pop: The 14-day case rate: The total number of cases diagnosed and reported over a 14-day period divided by the number of people living in the county. This number is then multiplied by 100,000. Due to reporting delay, there is a 3-day lag.
The California Department of Health gave an example of calculating a 3 day lag on their website.
For April 1st, case rates would be calculated using March 15th- March 28th.
So for August 21st, that should be August 4th- August 17th.
For April 1st, case rates would be calculated using March 15th- March 28th.
So for August 21st, that should be August 4th- August 17th.
Here is my attempt at explaining the calculations based off the OC’s current numbers on their portal. Now, I’m a mom with two semesters of stats about 15 years ago. So, please correct me if I’m wrong.
PS- Don’t mind the one handed recording, but do enjoy that whiteboard.
PS- Don’t mind the one handed recording, but do enjoy that whiteboard.
Daily case numbers are based off OC County COVID-19 Dashboard and fluctuate bec once a positive test is received by the county they are imputed manually by specimen collection date.
So our daily covid+ cases received was 372 today, but today will show 0 for this data.
So our daily covid+ cases received was 372 today, but today will show 0 for this data.
I am not an expert, but I am very concerned with these issues raised be people tracking OC numbers daily.
If OC Health recently changed the way they calculate their cases per 100,000 rate to bring them below that 100 threshold given by the state to reopen- thats a problem.
If OC Health recently changed the way they calculate their cases per 100,000 rate to bring them below that 100 threshold given by the state to reopen- thats a problem.
To clarify:
3 day lag is given due to to time required for reporting data. Numbers will come in much later than 3 days (we all know tests can take much longer to receive results, then they manually enter).So Aug 19th having 10 will continue to change as new results get returned.
3 day lag is given due to to time required for reporting data. Numbers will come in much later than 3 days (we all know tests can take much longer to receive results, then they manually enter).So Aug 19th having 10 will continue to change as new results get returned.
Wanted to tag a few people for their knowledge:
@AndrewNoymer
@VoiceofOC
@ocregister
@JeongPark52
@latimes
@DanChow01
Feel free to tag anyone else you think might have some background on explaining what’s happening.
@AndrewNoymer
@VoiceofOC
@ocregister
@JeongPark52
@latimes
@DanChow01
Feel free to tag anyone else you think might have some background on explaining what’s happening.
Hey, @CAgovernor @GavinNewsom @CAPublicHealth ,
It would be really nice if you also chimed in. I have 5 children I’m trusting you to protect and if our numbers are being purposefully manipulated, then I expect you to step up. Don’t let our failed OC leadership kill more people.
It would be really nice if you also chimed in. I have 5 children I’m trusting you to protect and if our numbers are being purposefully manipulated, then I expect you to step up. Don’t let our failed OC leadership kill more people.
School districts in OC are letting parents know that in-person classes will be resuming soon if (based off the county numbers) we can continue to stay under that 100 number.
Accuracy needs to be ensured. One game seems to be played with these numbers after another. Shameful.
Accuracy needs to be ensured. One game seems to be played with these numbers after another. Shameful.
Here is another quick video explanation on how I got the numbers on the calendar example/video. Please note that these numbers are constantly changing as the county receives them. So right now August 19th shows 10 cases but tomorrow it could be 100.
