I rarely wade into shorts but when I do it's with puts. Clearly big cap tech has benefited from the kitchen sink liquidity of the past several months. It is not rational against ordinary metrices but it is understandable. After all, it is 2020 so we should expect non normal. $qqq
I'll use $QQQ as the mega tech vehicle. Question is, how high can it push before downside volatility is introduced? I'm guessing it's somewhere between $282-$310 and likely there's an exhale from there in the next 2 weeks. Is it a long term top? If so, expect ranges to widen.
Right now, I like the $qqq Nov 20th expiration date. If the Qs blast over $300 I might move out into 2021. Why puts? Simple, my risk is defined. If the Qs don't exhale between now and Nov 20th I'll lose 100% of the capital. I'll probably be long $NQ strategically for day trades.
Why bother with this right now? Because it's 2020 and the potential for $qqq to fly off the rails in the southerly direction does exist. Potential downside targets for $qqq
1. $245
2. $238
3. $220
4. $173
Tactically speaking, I don't expect the political class to hand Trump the election vis-a-vis a roaring, liquidity driven, mega tech rally. The odds of a torpedo are growing by the day.
Vol is central to this thesis...so if vol doesn't arrive with a vengeance this will fail. $qqq
You can follow @Shinola_Trades.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled:

By continuing to use the site, you are consenting to the use of cookies as explained in our Cookie Policy to improve your experience.